The latest study of the SGX: When the dry market is recovering, it still needs to wait and see

The latest findings from the Singapore Exchange (SGX) show that after many disappointments, shipping market investors remain cautious about the time nodes of the “dry bulk transportation market returning to a sustainable balance”.

According to the monthly report of the SGX dry bulk shipping market, the Baltic Index (BDI) rose 8% at the end of June, with the Capesize bulk carrier market index rising by 17% and the Panamax bulk carrier market index rising by 15%. The report also stated that the index (especially the Capesize Bulk Carrier Market Index) volatility is at an abnormally low level.

According to the SGX, “in the coal transportation market, due to the limited domestic coal production in China and the resulting increase in unit costs, the demand for offshore coal transportation is strong,” it is also worth noting that in the past ten years, the third quarter of each year Brazil's iron ore exports were stronger than the second quarter.

However, the latest shipping industry survey of the SGX shows that despite the recent optimistic forecast that the gap between supply and demand in the dry bulk shipping market will gradually shrink, it has attracted widespread attention, but investors have “dry bulk cargo after the 18-month imbalance. The transportation market will usher in a balance of supply and demand, and we no longer hope that the dry bulk shipping market will recover in the second half of 2017.

According to the survey, only a small number of investors believe that the balance of supply and demand in the dry bulk market will be restored by 2018, and some of them even believe that it will be difficult to recover until 2020. In addition, the consensus in the industry is that the growth rate of the global dry bulk fleet will be 0-3% this year.