The National Development and Reform Commission wrote an article yesterday saying that it is entirely possible that the consumer price will achieve the expected annual adjustment target of around 3%.
In August, the overall level of consumer prices rose by 3.5% year-on-year and rose by 0.6% month-on-month; the ex-factory price of industrial goods and the purchase price of raw material fuelled power rose by 4.3% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, which represented a decrease of 0.5% and 1 percentage point respectively from the previous month. From January to August, the purchase prices of household consumption, industrial products, and raw material fuels rose by 2.8%, 5.6%, and 10.1%, respectively.
1. Food prices promote the seasonal rise in the overall level of consumer prices Affected by changes in seasonal supply and demand and recoverable increases in prices of pork and other agricultural products, the consumer price index in August rose by 3.5% year-on-year, which is the highest point of the year-on-year increase. Among them, the price of non-staple foods rose more. As the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day approaches, companies and businesses prepare goods in advance and make moon cakes. Pork and eggs enter the peak season for consumer spending, and the price rises. In addition, the weather turns cooler, and some varieties of vegetables after the autumn begin to fall gradually. Vegetable prices have picked up seasonally. In August, the prices of meat and poultry, their products, fresh vegetables, and fresh eggs in the consumer price index rose by 4.8%, 7.7%, and 7.5% respectively, affecting the total level of consumer prices by 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1% respectively. The main reason for the increase in monthly consumer price index. Grain prices have eased. As the country strengthened the control of the grain market, the purchase price of raw grains stabilized at a high level. The average national purchase price of wheat, rice and corn in August rose by 0.6% month-on-month, 0.3 percentage points less than the previous month. The prices of finished foods rose slightly. The average retail prices of early rice, late barley, barley, standard meal, flour-rich meal and supermarkets in 36 large and medium-sized cities nationwide increased by 0.4%, 0.4%, 1.2%, 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. %. The price of food in the consumer price index rose by 0.6% month-on-month. The prices of other goods and services are basically stable. Prices of entertainment education and cultural goods and services, tobacco, alcohol and supplies, household equipment and maintenance services, health care and personal care products rose 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively from the previous month. Transport and communications prices fell by 0.7% and 0.1% respectively.
Second, the price of industrial production materials stopped falling. The provinces imposed temporary power cuts on the high-energy-consuming industries such as cement and steel, or increased the implementation of differential pricing policies. As a result, supply decreased, costs increased, and the demand for domestic production materials rebounded, prompting industrial production. Data prices generally rebounded. Among them, the comprehensive average price of four kinds of steel products in steel trading markets in 22 cities in August, 66% of refined iron powder in Tangshan, Hebei, prices of electrolytic copper and electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai Huatong Nonferrous Metals Spot Trading Center, and 42.5 in medium and large cities The price of Portland cement increased by 5.2%, 12.6%, 6.3%, 3.0% and 0.9% respectively from the previous month. Due to the better water supply to the hydropower in the summer, the reliance on thermal power was reduced to a certain extent, resulting in a steady decrease in coal prices. At the end of August, the thermal coal market price of Qinhuangdao Port was 5,500 kcal/kg of coal closed at 730 yuan per ton. A drop of 15 yuan at the beginning of the month.
Third, the international market prices rebounded. The impact of many factors such as the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and droughts in Russia and other regions, wheat production cuts, and Russia’s temporarily banned grain exports have caused the price of agricultural products and production materials in the international market to rebound. In August, the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans in the international market rose by 21.7%, 9% and 2.3% month-on-month. Thai rice prices remained basically stable. Food prices in the international market are still generally lower than the domestic market, but the spread has narrowed. The price of production materials rebounded. In August, the WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices in the international market and electrolytic aluminum and electrolytic copper prices in the London Metal Futures Exchange rose by 0.4%, 2.3%, 8.1%, and 6.3% respectively from the previous month. Affected by the decline in iron ore prices in the international market, the international steel market price index (CRU index) in August was 175 points, a decrease of 3.8 points from the previous month. Affected by the recent increase in steel prices in the domestic market, it rose back to 180 points in the most recent week.
Fourth, the late price trend forecast in August, the highest level of consumer prices rose to 3.5% this year, the highest level, on the one hand by the increase in holiday consumption and other short-term factors; the other hand, and the first half of the hog prices continued to operate after the low recovery Rising about. From the late trend, the overall price level does not have the basis for continued sharp rises. First, food prices will tend to stabilize. In the northeast region, the growth of japonica rice, maize, maize in North China, and late rice in the South are all better than expected. This autumn harvest is expected to achieve a good harvest, which will help ensure food supply and maintain basic grain prices. Stable food prices will lay the foundation for stable prices of major agricultural and sideline products. Second, the hog prices will stabilize. In the near future, part of the central reserve frozen meat collected in April this year will be put into the market in order to protect the market supply during the two periods. Coupled with the current high pig production capacity, pig and pork prices will remain basically stable. Third, the prices of industrial consumer goods will continue to maintain a steady decline; most of the residential and service prices are still guided by the government, and the government can grasp the strength and pace of price adjustment according to the macroeconomic situation. Fourth, the hikes in price increases in the latter months of the year will quickly fade away, which will help the year-on-year increase in prices to fall. Based on the comprehensive analysis, it is entirely possible to achieve the expected 3% control target throughout the year.
In August, the overall level of consumer prices rose by 3.5% year-on-year and rose by 0.6% month-on-month; the ex-factory price of industrial goods and the purchase price of raw material fuelled power rose by 4.3% and 7.5% year-on-year, respectively, which represented a decrease of 0.5% and 1 percentage point respectively from the previous month. From January to August, the purchase prices of household consumption, industrial products, and raw material fuels rose by 2.8%, 5.6%, and 10.1%, respectively.
1. Food prices promote the seasonal rise in the overall level of consumer prices Affected by changes in seasonal supply and demand and recoverable increases in prices of pork and other agricultural products, the consumer price index in August rose by 3.5% year-on-year, which is the highest point of the year-on-year increase. Among them, the price of non-staple foods rose more. As the Mid-Autumn Festival and the National Day approaches, companies and businesses prepare goods in advance and make moon cakes. Pork and eggs enter the peak season for consumer spending, and the price rises. In addition, the weather turns cooler, and some varieties of vegetables after the autumn begin to fall gradually. Vegetable prices have picked up seasonally. In August, the prices of meat and poultry, their products, fresh vegetables, and fresh eggs in the consumer price index rose by 4.8%, 7.7%, and 7.5% respectively, affecting the total level of consumer prices by 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1% respectively. The main reason for the increase in monthly consumer price index. Grain prices have eased. As the country strengthened the control of the grain market, the purchase price of raw grains stabilized at a high level. The average national purchase price of wheat, rice and corn in August rose by 0.6% month-on-month, 0.3 percentage points less than the previous month. The prices of finished foods rose slightly. The average retail prices of early rice, late barley, barley, standard meal, flour-rich meal and supermarkets in 36 large and medium-sized cities nationwide increased by 0.4%, 0.4%, 1.2%, 0.4% and 0.5% respectively. %. The price of food in the consumer price index rose by 0.6% month-on-month. The prices of other goods and services are basically stable. Prices of entertainment education and cultural goods and services, tobacco, alcohol and supplies, household equipment and maintenance services, health care and personal care products rose 0.2%, 0.2%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively from the previous month. Transport and communications prices fell by 0.7% and 0.1% respectively.
Second, the price of industrial production materials stopped falling. The provinces imposed temporary power cuts on the high-energy-consuming industries such as cement and steel, or increased the implementation of differential pricing policies. As a result, supply decreased, costs increased, and the demand for domestic production materials rebounded, prompting industrial production. Data prices generally rebounded. Among them, the comprehensive average price of four kinds of steel products in steel trading markets in 22 cities in August, 66% of refined iron powder in Tangshan, Hebei, prices of electrolytic copper and electrolytic aluminum in Shanghai Huatong Nonferrous Metals Spot Trading Center, and 42.5 in medium and large cities The price of Portland cement increased by 5.2%, 12.6%, 6.3%, 3.0% and 0.9% respectively from the previous month. Due to the better water supply to the hydropower in the summer, the reliance on thermal power was reduced to a certain extent, resulting in a steady decrease in coal prices. At the end of August, the thermal coal market price of Qinhuangdao Port was 5,500 kcal/kg of coal closed at 730 yuan per ton. A drop of 15 yuan at the beginning of the month.
Third, the international market prices rebounded. The impact of many factors such as the depreciation of the U.S. dollar, and droughts in Russia and other regions, wheat production cuts, and Russia’s temporarily banned grain exports have caused the price of agricultural products and production materials in the international market to rebound. In August, the prices of wheat, corn and soybeans in the international market rose by 21.7%, 9% and 2.3% month-on-month. Thai rice prices remained basically stable. Food prices in the international market are still generally lower than the domestic market, but the spread has narrowed. The price of production materials rebounded. In August, the WTI and Brent crude oil futures prices in the international market and electrolytic aluminum and electrolytic copper prices in the London Metal Futures Exchange rose by 0.4%, 2.3%, 8.1%, and 6.3% respectively from the previous month. Affected by the decline in iron ore prices in the international market, the international steel market price index (CRU index) in August was 175 points, a decrease of 3.8 points from the previous month. Affected by the recent increase in steel prices in the domestic market, it rose back to 180 points in the most recent week.
Fourth, the late price trend forecast in August, the highest level of consumer prices rose to 3.5% this year, the highest level, on the one hand by the increase in holiday consumption and other short-term factors; the other hand, and the first half of the hog prices continued to operate after the low recovery Rising about. From the late trend, the overall price level does not have the basis for continued sharp rises. First, food prices will tend to stabilize. In the northeast region, the growth of japonica rice, maize, maize in North China, and late rice in the South are all better than expected. This autumn harvest is expected to achieve a good harvest, which will help ensure food supply and maintain basic grain prices. Stable food prices will lay the foundation for stable prices of major agricultural and sideline products. Second, the hog prices will stabilize. In the near future, part of the central reserve frozen meat collected in April this year will be put into the market in order to protect the market supply during the two periods. Coupled with the current high pig production capacity, pig and pork prices will remain basically stable. Third, the prices of industrial consumer goods will continue to maintain a steady decline; most of the residential and service prices are still guided by the government, and the government can grasp the strength and pace of price adjustment according to the macroeconomic situation. Fourth, the hikes in price increases in the latter months of the year will quickly fade away, which will help the year-on-year increase in prices to fall. Based on the comprehensive analysis, it is entirely possible to achieve the expected 3% control target throughout the year.
Jiangyin Yuanfang Machinery Manufacture Co., Ltd , https://www.yuanfangmachine.com