China Drying Network News Since July, the domestic aniline market has completed a round of continuous upswing, setting a new high this year. As of last weekend (August 3rd), the domestic mainstream transaction price rose from 9,200 yuan (ton price, the same below) at the beginning of July to 11,300 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 23%, which is the largest increase since the beginning of this year and the fastest increase rate. l Quotes. The reason is still based on the bottom of the market, the rise of raw materials, inventory decline, steady downstream, exports and then increase the number of positive and driven by the same. However, due to the lack of significant and significant growth in downstream demand, the contradictions in the high market have started to show. It is expected that the high turnover of the market will slow down, and it is expected to enter a short-term consolidation period after a quick pull to fully release the high risk of shocks.
Rising raw material prices drive higher In early July, domestic pure benzene fell to 7,500 yuan due to the impact of international crude oil and pure benzene, and domestic stocks were released. Then, driven by the continuous recovery of international crude oil and benzene, the price was raised five times in a row under low inventory conditions, reaching 8,500 yuan at the beginning of August, an increase of 13.3%. In addition, the decline in the production of hydrogenated benzene has further affected the market supply capacity of pure benzene, resulting in aniline companies in the cost increase, but also by the constraints of raw material supply, operating rate continues to decline, becoming one of the main driving force for rapid market prices.
Inventories drove down the market and pulled up sharply In May, the domestic aniline market fell for two consecutive months, causing many companies to fall into the cost zone. The operating rate was low, and the aniline social inventory remained low. In the process of pure benzene upturn started in the upper reaches of July, aniline enterprises were not affected by the market outlook, and they did not increase the operating rate. Moreover, due to the fact that raw material purchase progress could not keep up with the progress of raw material prices, aniline enterprises The operating rate dropped again. Up to now, according to incomplete statistics, there are still more than 5 enterprises in China that have been shut down and their annual production capacity exceeds 300,000 tons. Another 4 companies have operating rates below 40%, involving a shutdown capacity of more than 460,000 tons. At present, the comprehensive operating rate in China is less than 50%, and it has dropped by another 10% compared with the previous period. This is another reason why aniline prices have risen at a much faster rate than pure benzene.
Downstream steady support market steadily rose In July, downstream companies such as MDI, dyes and other companies started to drive in a period of steady growth. The reporter learned from the Zhejiang and Guangdong regions that dyestuff enterprises have recovered, especially the rising prices of reactive dyes, which also stimulated the demand for aniline. The operating rate of other auxiliaries enterprises has also been enlarged, which comprehensively supports the continuous rise of the aniline market. In addition, due to the influence of most of the domestic chemical industry's rise in July, the market was once heated up and the aniline market steadily increased.
The re-growth of exports has become another good example. According to customs statistics, 957 tons of aniline was exported in June 2012, and the export volume increased by 144.83% from the previous month, an increase of 76.39% compared with the same period of last year, and the price was more than 20% higher than that of domestic products. The highest level this year. This trend shows that aniline exports are expected to become the direction of future market growth. The reporter also learned from several domestic import and export companies that at present, most domestic aniline production enterprises use canned exports and very few export aniline in barrels. However, there is still a market demand for canned aniline in foreign countries. It will still be the company's new profit growth point.
In view of the recent rapid pull-up of the aniline market, according to the current situation where the downstream demand is still not significantly increased, the market turnover has been significantly slowed, and volume and price have been shrinking. According to the analysis of the trend charts of the aniline market in the past two years, August and September are the high phase preparation period for the aniline market. Therefore, the market outlook is expected to enter a narrow range after pulling up. If the market can be put in place in the near future, the market is expected to stabilize the current high transaction platform.
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