Refined oil prices rose for the ninth time during the year

Yesterday, the Development and Reform Commission issued a notice saying that at 24:00 on November 2, the price limit of gasoline and diesel will be increased by RMB 150/ton, equivalent to 89#0.11 yuan/liter; 92#0.12 yuan/liter; 0#0.13 yuan/liter.

This is the ninth time since 2017, the price of oil has been raised. After a rise or fall, the cumulative increase in gasoline is 100 yuan/ton, which is equivalent to a price increase of 92# gasoline is 0.08 yuan; diesel has been increased by 100 yuan/ton, equivalent to an increase of 0# diesel. 0.08 yuan. Compared with the beginning of the year, the cost of oil for end-use consumers was generally flat and slightly higher.

Zhong Yu Information Analyst Sang Yi told the "Securities Daily" reporter that after entering the international oil market in October, there was "ahead of heels" at the beginning of the month and the end of the month. European and American crude oil futures prices climbed to US$61 per barrel at the end of the month, respectively. In US$/barrel, Brent’s oil prices have been successfully refreshed for two years.

However, Mulberry believes that in November, the international oil market may still have a tentative uptrend, but there is a large upward resistance, and short-term oil prices may return to shocks and consolidation. Judging from the current oil price, the new round of pricing period is still expected to increase, and the specific price adjustment rate will still be determined by the trend of international oil prices.

Zhuo Chuang, an analyst at Infocomm, also believes that at current international crude oil prices due to geopolitical risks and prolonged production cuts, the oil price is expected to consolidate. With the approach of the OPEC Vienna meeting, oil prices are expected to stabilize after high consolidation. Taking into account the high oil prices driven by the current cycle, the initial rate of change in the next round of crude oil is high, and the trend is mainly in the range of positive fluctuations, it is expected that the next round of refined oil retail price ceiling is expected to continue to increase, but the rate of increase Not too much.

What needs to be mentioned is that since the second half of 2017, international crude oil has continued to fluctuate upward, and the domestic refined oil market has started to rebound.

Recently, the wholesale price of domestic refined oil products has risen as a whole. In particular, diesel has boosted its booming infrastructure this year. This has led to a strong seasonal demand effect. Coupled with frequent diesel upgrades in the second half of the year, the supply of resources in some regions has become tight, and multiple favorable factors have helped. The rise in diesel wholesale prices was particularly prominent. At the same time, however, the spread of domestic refined oil products in the cycle continued to narrow.

In terms of Shandong refining, the wholesale diesel market is booming, and the price has skyrocketed, making the price difference between wholesale and retail of 0# diesel in Shandong Diqi to 793 yuan/ton.

According to Jinlianchuang monitoring data, the national average diesel price of No. 0 diesel on November 1 was RMB 6,479/ton, which was a year-on-year increase of RMB 1,420/ton or nearly 30%; the national average price of gasoline on November 1 was 92%. 6490 yuan / ton, compared with mid-year rose 670 yuan / ton, or nearly 12%. As far as retail prices are concerned, since the international crude oil shocks have risen, since the second half of the year, the retail price of China's refined oil products has risen four times in total. The cumulative increase in gasoline and diesel retail prices has been 555 yuan/ton and 535 yuan/ton respectively.

Xu Pengchuang analyst Xu Peng told the “Securities Daily” reporter that comparing gasoline and diesel wholesale and retail price increases, the increase in gasoline wholesale and retail sales are similar, so the price of gasoline wholesale and retail price basically maintained at 2,000 yuan / ton or so high Level. The increase in the wholesale price of diesel fuel is far greater than that of retail sales. That is, the purchase cost of diesel fuel is much higher than the increase in sales, which has led to a significant decline in the profit of gas station diesel sales.

He also pointed out that the current price difference between diesel wholesalers is 458 yuan / ton, has exceeded the new low this year. In the later period, the diesel market in November is still expected to be more optimistic, so there is a possibility that the diesel wholesale price gap will continue to narrow. The narrowing of wholesale and retail spreads also means that the retail sales margin has narrowed, and retail profits have been continuously compressed.

Zhuo Chuang Information also said that although the current round of the National Development and Reform Commission raised the oil price policy has been implemented, but the recent wholesale price of refined oil products pushed up, and maintain high volatility. In respect of gas stations, the gap between the wholesale and retail price of diesel was further significantly narrowed, and the profit of gas stations was significantly weighed down.

It is understood that in the face of the compressed profit margins, on November 1, some gas stations in Shanghai began to supply B5 biodiesel made from "drain oil." This biodiesel is cheap, and emissions of pollutants such as metals and particulate matter are reduced. It has also been reduced by more than 10%, which is undoubtedly a great advantage for car owners who prefer cheap oil products.