Purchase tax policy nears expiration of the auto market in the fourth quarter

"Jinjiuyinshi" has always been a true portrayal of the Chinese auto market. Today, this auto market phenomenon continues to be deducted. According to the latest statistics on the Beijing auto market in Asia, the number of new cars traded in September was 39,200 units, which was further narrowed compared with the same period of last year. In the same period, the national auto market data also showed that in September sales force sales, passenger car sales in a single month to achieve a total of 2,342,600 units in 2017 annual high, with the year-on-year growth rate of 3.27%, sales growth at the end of the year significantly.

Asian market participants believe that at the end of the year, passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters or less will be levied at a tax rate of 7.5% on vehicle purchase tax. Sales, consumer enthusiasm for car purchase began to be mobilized, the fourth quarter auto market sales will usher in a small hikes.

Fourth quarter will still be "negative growth"

In fact, since October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016, the state has imposed a vehicle purchase tax policy on the purchase of 1.6 liters or less of passenger cars at the reduced rate of 5%. Since the implementation of the vehicle purchase tax policy, the automobile market is approaching the end of each year. Ushered in a small growth line.

Since the implementation of the 2015 policy in October of the same year, the overall market sales volume has continued to grow for the third consecutive month in a chain and year-on-year, with production and sales volume exceeding 2.6 million units, a record high. In December, it reached 2.7855 million vehicles, an increase of 15.39% year-on-year. Among them, passenger cars sold sales of 2,424,100 units in December, a year-on-year increase of 18.27%, a record high.

At the end of 2016, approaching the end of the policy, starting in September, the auto market entered a new round of growth peaks, in which passenger vehicle sales in September reached 2.238 million units, an increase of 28.94%. From the month of October to December, sales reached 2,444.1 thousand, 2.59 million and 2,672,300 vehicles, respectively, and reached record highs.

Looking back at 2017, by the end of the year, the auto market may once again usher in a small peak of growth in 2017. However, as the policy intensity continues to weaken, this round of “small peaks” does not exceed the actual market performance in 2015 and the end of 2016, so sales may be “negative growth” year-on-year.

Dealer subsidy promotion effect

The small peak of the auto market at the end of 2017 has shown all kinds of signs. Jin Tai, the general manager of the Citroen brand responsible for the brand, said in an interview with a Beijing Youth Daily reporter that they have recently participated in several outdoor auto shows in succession. Judging from the auto show scene, a number of new cars are listed on the market and the policy is approaching maturity. The enthusiasm of the purchasing crowd has been mobilized, and the number of people lingering at each booth has generally increased. It is not like many consumers in the mid-year auto show look at cars, but only pay attention to similarities. Volkswagen, Toyota and other individual brands. Liu Bo said: "Every month after the listing of Dongxue Tianyi, the store has reached 40 vehicles. By the end of the year, we have confidence that the number of single-shop orders will exceed 100."

In the Asian Games Village automobile market in Beijing, dealers have full confidence in the auto market at the end of the year. The relevant person in the city of Asia said: “This year’s Jin Jiuyin 10 is like a warm-up of the auto market. Manufacturers and dealers have already researched the trends of the auto market and are waiting to launch business policies that are in line with the market, especially those manufacturers that have not performed well in the first half of the year. According to reports, in the first half of the year, it was still behind Mercedes-Benz, BMW's Audi, to dealers a single store subsidies amounted to 12 million yuan, began in July after the steady rise in sales, the ranking of the top three luxury brands in June BBA (Benz, BMW and Audi have returned to ABB’s previous rankings, leaving Audi dealers full of expectations for the auto market.

In fact, after entering the month of July, not only did the PSA Peugeot Citroen brand, including Beijing Hyundai Motor Co., Ltd., and Dongfeng Yueda Kia Motors Co., Ltd. sell back, but they were generally confident that the end of the year would be expected. According to the statistics from January to September, the sales volume of Chinese branded passenger cars and German, Japanese, and American passenger cars from January to September were 7.3552 million and 3.5294 million, 3.0539 million, and 2.0909 million, respectively. Compared with the same period of last year, Japanese passenger cars showed rapid growth in sales performance, and the German and American lines showed a slightly lower growth rate.

The fourth quarter impulse is the key timing

For manufacturers, because they are generally optimistic about the market performance at the end of the year, they are much ahead of schedule in product scheduling. For example, the Dongfeng Citroen Tianyi, Beijing Hyundai IX35, Beijing Hyundai Rena, Ford Maverick, Ford sharp world and other models are listed in advance in order to prepare from the production and other aspects of the end of the peak sales.

Some market participants believe that the current market characteristics in the first-tier cities such as Beijing have become particularly evident. Consumers generally have a clear intention to purchase new models and luxury brands. This year, the new Tiguan L, Buick GL8 and other new models are generally sold at a markup. Near the end of the year, these models have begun to actively prepare for production shocks. The proportion of luxury brand purchases in the first-tier cities has exceeded 40%, which is evident from the continued growth in the sales of luxury brands. It is generally believed that before the end of the purchase tax preferential policy on December 31, the auto market is about to usher in a small sales climax. The difference is that the growth of the auto market will not be too fierce, but the quality of growth will be better than at the end of 2015 and 2016.

At the moment, although the so-called "golden nine silver ten" is not so "gold" and not "silver", but the auto market is indeed changing to the normal form. For all manufacturers, the future will only be stronger and the weak will be weaker.