Can the new 300,000 target new energy bus industry sing a new "win song"?

As the vanguard and “vanguard” of the promotion and application of new energy vehicles in China, coupled with its social attributes of taking on the public transportation, the new energy bus has been the focus of attention both inside and outside the industry in recent years. As the core market of new energy buses, the bus market has always been the focus of policy control, and it is the main battlefield with the most fierce competition.

With the support and promotion of the continuous favorable policies, the new energy bus market has witnessed explosive growth in recent years, and in particular, rocket type soaring in 2016 has made people deeply remembered. However, with the approaching target of 200,000 “ceilings” in 2020, the industry outlook has gradually become bleak. According to statistics, by the end of 2017, the number of new energy buses has reached 165,000, accounting for the entire bus population. 60.86 million were 27%, while the new energy bus production in 2017 reached 105,000 units.

The industry bottoms out, where is the road?

On November 27, 2017, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Opinions on Comprehensively Deepening the Development of Green Transportation", which proposed that the number of new energy and clean energy vehicles in the transportation industry in 2020 should reach 600,000. On January 21, 2018, Vice Minister Liu Xiaoming of the Ministry of Transport again emphasized this development goal in the industry forum. The promotion of new energy vehicles in the transportation sector has already achieved the target of 300,000 vehicles during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” ahead of the end of 2017. The next promotion goal is to reach 600,000 by 2020.

According to the forecasts and assessments of relevant agencies, the new energy buses should occupy half of these 600,000 vehicles.

So, the market expansion of 300,000, the new energy bus industry can sing the new "Kai Song"? The next three years, new energy bus market who can stand in the forefront, dominate the ups and downs?

The new energy vehicle network analyzes the above propositions for the industry's assessment.

Policy Drives New Energy Bus "Dyes Green" Bus Market

Since the State Council issued the “Guidance on Giving Priority to the Development of Public Transportation” policy in 2012, up to now, 80% of sales of new energy buses have come from the bus market, and sales of new energy buses in this sector accounted for 89.8%.

In 2012, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Giving Priority to the Development of Public Transportation," and clearly stated that buses, including taxis and urban transportation, are the main positions for the promotion and application of new energy vehicles.

In 2013, the Ministry of Transport issued the implementation opinions on implementing the “Guiding Opinions of the State Council on Urban Priority Development of Public Transportation”.

In 2015, the Ministry of Transport issued the “Implementation Opinions on Accelerating the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles in the Transportation Industry”, which put forward two indicators: First, to promote the establishment of a public transport city and create cities in 37 public transport cities. The number of newly added and replaced buses requires the promotion of new energy buses to be no less than 30%. Second, it is determined that by the year 2020, 300,000 new energy vehicles will be promoted and applied throughout the industry, including 200,000 new energy buses. , including 100,000 vehicles such as taxis and city distribution logistics vehicles.

Undoubtedly, with the support and promotion of the continuous favorable policies, the new energy bus market has witnessed explosive growth in recent years, especially rocket rocketing in 2016, which is impressive. Statistics show that in 2016, the total sales of new energy buses reached 117,851, of which, the annual sales of new energy buses reached 99,011 units, accounting for as high as 84%, and the bus sector has become the core market for new energy buses. By the end of 2016, the number of new energy buses had reached 165,000, accounting for 27% of the total number of 406,600 buses. In 2017, the cumulative production of new energy buses will be 105,000 units, achieving the target of 200,000 vehicles in the “13th Five-Year Plan” ahead of schedule.

It can be seen from the above that, as of now, sales of more than 80% of new energy buses have come from the bus market, and sales of new energy buses in this sector accounted for 89.8% of sales.

At a time when many automakers are narrowing the market and approaching the limit of growth, the good news of the reversal of the situation has followed. Market expansion and prospects are on the horizon, and confidence in the industry has been boosted.

On November 27, 2017, the Ministry of Transport issued the "Opinions on Comprehensively Deepening the Development of Green Transportation", which proposed that the number of new energy and clean energy vehicles in the transportation industry in 2020 should reach 600,000. On January 21, 2018, Vice Minister Liu Xiaoming of the Ministry of Transport again emphasized this development goal in the industry forum. The promotion of new energy vehicles in the transportation sector has already achieved the target of 300,000 vehicles during the “Thirteenth Five-Year Plan” ahead of the end of 2017. The next promotion goal is to reach 600,000 by 2020.

According to the forecasts and assessments of relevant agencies, the new energy buses should occupy half of these 600,000 vehicles. According to the goal of achieving 300,000 vehicles in 2018 to 2020, the average annual increase in the number of new energy buses should be around 100,000, which is far beyond the industry's general estimate that the average number of new energy buses sold in the next few years should be 8 Millions of forecasts.

So, who will stand at the forefront of the new energy bus market in the next three years and dominate the ups and downs?

Twin Engine Drives New Industry Pattern

Some experts pointed out that if the new energy bus industry was promoted by the government in previous years, it should be an iterative period for both the government and the market.

In the surge of tides, the ups and downs of industry enterprises are also writing the green marches of reforms and eliminating corruption. Driven by Shuangqing, a new pattern of the industry is emerging and emerging.

Statistics show that in the whole year of 2017, domestic sales of 86,767 new energy passenger vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 24.41%, of which the top 10 companies accumulatively sold 74,286 units, and new energy buses accounted for 85.62%. Judging from the accumulated production in January-December 2017, Yutong Bus maintains an absolute dominant position and is the only company with a cumulative output of more than 10,000 yuan in 2017. The cumulative production of new energy buses is 24,722 units. The top three of 2017 were Yutong, BYD, and Zhongtong, which were in line with the 2016 Top Three, but BYD, which ranked third in 2016, ranked second in 2017. Among them, BYD's January-December total production of new energy buses was 8688 units. , China Tong cumulative output 8180 units. Although the top three teams have changed slightly, the pattern of the top three of the new energy bus has basically been determined.

If you say, Yutong Bus is in the first echelon of New Energy Bus, BYD, Zhongtong are the second echelon, Zhuhai Yinlong (6321), China Motors Times (6019), Beiqi Foton (5011), Shanghai Shenlong (4702 In addition, Xiamen Golden Brigade (4,647) is the third tier. Compared with the 2016 industry rankings, Zhuhai Yinlong ranked the fourth in 2017 and Shanghai Shenlong ranked seventh were among the top ten new entrants, and Ankai Bus and Suzhou Golden Dragon withdrew from the top ten, ranking respectively in 2017. Eleven and fourteen.

In particular, it is worth mentioning that as the top ten new entrants, Zhuhai Yinlong and Shanghai Shenlong’s advanced ranks have become the strengths to build a new pattern, all of which are eye-catching by virtue of their rapid development in the new energy bus market.

In 2016, Yinlong's electric bus sales exceeded 5,000 units. In 2017, sales orders were close to 7,000 units. As of 2017, the production capacity planning of several major Yinlong New Energy Industrial Parks has already reached 136,000. According to the plan, the production target for 2020 is to reach 100,000 units. From now on, the production capacity reserve should be more than sufficient.

In March 2017, Shenlong Bus was acquired by Dongxu Optoelectronics, a well-known domestic listed company, and focused on the dual layout of market and technology, becoming the core driving force for its substantial growth. Judging from the cumulative growth rate, only one of the top 10 companies achieved positive growth, which is Shenlong Bus. In the year of 2017, 4702 new energy buses were sold, a year-on-year increase of 236.58%, which led to the industry's top spot, with market share exceeding 5%.

The analysis of the new energy automobile network believes that Shenlong buses are free from financial troubles, and the introduction of core technologies for early-stage reserves and expansion of production capacity are important guarantees for the significant increase in sales of new energy passenger cars in 2017. It can be said that "Dongxu has solved the worries for Shen Long."

As the industry insiders pointed out: "Individual groups in China only have industries, especially the auto industry, which has no finances and no hematopoietic function. It is like a leukemia person. It is extremely fragile and vulnerable. The automobile industry is undergoing transformation. Currently, funds are urgently needed and there is no capital input. It will face a crisis."

In summary, the annual output of new energy buses in 2017 exceeded 100,000 vehicles, rewriting the pessimistic expectations of the industry at the beginning of the year. However, it can be expected that the concentrated outbreak in the last two months of 2017 will inevitably lead to overdraft of market demand in 2018. With the dramatic adjustment of new energy subsidy policies, it is not impossible for the 2018 pure electric passenger car to be sold or lowered again.

In addition, the policy impact of the new energy bus industry in the next few years will continue to weaken. According to the documents previously issued by the country, subsidies for new energy buses other than fuel cells will be completely withdrawn in 2020, with regard to new energy commercial vehicles. The related points policy is also under discussion, which may help boost the new energy bus as soon as possible out of the policy support and into the demand-driven market stage.

The analysis of the New Energy Automobile Network believes that there is no doubt that the expansion of the market will bring huge market opportunities to the new energy bus industry, but as the subsidy falls sharply, the company’s cost pressure and market competition will further intensify and make up short The challenges of the board will also be enormous. With financial capital as the core or background, innovative technologies and changing business models are becoming new ways for auto companies to become stronger and bigger.

We look forward to seeing that new energy bus companies have demonstrated their superior market competitiveness under the dual drive of policies and markets.