Zhou Anjian: Exploring the Development Path of Post-Subsidy Era New Energy Automobile Industry

The 2018 China Automobile Forum officially opened on April 4-26. The theme of this forum is: new era, new trends, new strategies. The moderator of this forum is the Deputy Secretary-General of China Automobile Industry Association and the Secretary-General of China Automobile Forum Organizing Committee, Shi Jianhua. Zhou Anjian, deputy general manager of Changan Automobile's New Energy Vehicle Business Unit, delivered a keynote speech entitled “Exploration of the Post-Subsidy Era, New Energy Vehicle Industry Development Path” at the Sub-forum on Post-subsidy Era, New Energy Vehicle Development Bottlenecks and Solutions. The following is a brief summary of the conference site:

Zhou Anjian: Good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen, thank the organizing committee for giving such an opportunity to share and discuss the development of the new energy industry. I share with you today some of our reflections in this transition period or window period.

As for the trend, we should say that we have done some analysis on the two dimensions of opportunity and challenge.

The first opportunity is low-carbon environmental protection, and the global automotive electrification wave is unstoppable and reversed. In particular, we see from some production and market performance that this trend is also irreversible. The construction of this industrialization pattern is already irreversible and is gradually accelerating. This has driven everyone to say that the post-subsidy will be a trend, that is, judging from our judgments, whether it is from the national needs, the development of the enterprise itself, or the demand of the market, it will not be a broken-edge type. Yes, it has been developed with irreversible development.

Opportunity 2 is a chapter in the end. The development of new energy vehicles is the only way from a big country to a powerful country. At the beginning, new energy development has risen to the national strategy. This is because under this strategy, China has only formed a vigorous promotion by the government. The positive response of companies and the development of social linkages will have such rapid development. Situation. However, this has another aspect. Subsidies We believe that the subsidy is replaced by the management of policies to promote this sound development of the industry. And we predict that the overall market share will also gradually increase, that is, we have divided the entire period from 2001 to the present. We have divided the four stages. These four stages are from the very beginning, that is, technology, that is, we have formed some patents. One technology researches us into some demonstration operations under government subsidies, then subsidies + regulations, and finally into the legal + market-driven, then now we really enter the regulations + market, that is, we are talking about this post-subsidy era.

The third opportunity is that we say that consumption is upgrading, and the car is upgrading to the direction of emotional experience consumption. The current characteristics are that the younger generation of people is deeply self-conscious. For cars, he not only understands it as a simple means of transport, but also has more emotional needs, such as uniqueness, personality, and better desires such as better me. It brings about cars. From performance to emotional consumption, from reliable cars to comfortable cars to understanding your car. What is hidden behind it? I think there are at least two things: First, the car must be personalized; the second is intelligence. In this aspect we Changan has also done a lot of attempts. For example, everyone can see in our pavilion that the Xiaoan system we have developed is not a simple auxiliary vehicle. It can also bring you some personal communication, such as telling a joke or escorting you. You chat, it is a passive tool to interact, this is emotional communication. So in the car of the future we say that it will develop in such a direction.

Opportunity 4 is a technological explosion. We say that the deep integration of “4+2” will create a huge industrial imagination space. These four aspects: electrification, interconnection, skill, coolness, sharing of the environment, and smart manufacturing. Originally speaking, we must have a car that is obviously the automotive industry, but from now on, because of the intelligence, Because of the interconnected intelligence and networking, what we may have just made clear is that this type of Internet carmaker, new forces, car makers and so on, he also entered the ranks. This adds a huge amount of external ideas to the industry. idea. And later we talked about new energy vehicles. For example, under the concept of sharing, it would be a better solution, plus smart manufacturing. Therefore, we will say that manufacturing is not a factory in the future. It may be that we are all vehicle manufacturers. It may be a point of the foundry. This is our thinking.

Opportunity 5 is the reconstruction of industry and value, which will give rise to new automotive formats and great companies. From the traditional parking lot, the automaker may play a leading role in the chain of the entire industrial chain. However, in the new energy industry, we have the reconstruction of several values ​​or the reconstruction of the industry. One is technical. Refactoring, key technologies need to be gradually extended from complete vehicles to key components and subsystems. That is to say, in our traditional field, the depot has had a certain amount of autonomy in the entire vehicle, but it is still weak on key components. In fact, this piece of new energy is our key component, whether it is a motor or a battery. In fact, we have formed a relatively good independent company and have mastered the core technology. Our Chang’an car is actually a good motor system. It can be said that more than 90% of battery systems use domestic autonomous products. This is very different from traditional cars.

Service reengineering means that the entire vehicle company must evolve from a product provider to a product + service + travel plan. It is not just a product. This is also because we think that new energy vehicles also bring us some thinking, that is to say, we do New energy vehicles, we do the traditional car is to do a good job after the car do not have to manage other links, because the other aspects are very mature, but we must do in addition to the new energy car that is also considered to be just before the car experts talked about Charging, travel mode, and operation, otherwise the car you made was what you gave to the customer. He said that I didn't use it because I couldn't charge or learn about you. So this also prompted us to solve from the product provider to a product + service + travel plan.

Value reconstruction is the transfer of core value points from the vehicle to key system components and upstream and downstream. It’s that we’ve been thinking about this issue. We’ve done 800,000 this year or 2017. Or, in a nutshell, we’re talking roughly about the output value of an industry that’s worth 100 billion yuan, from the vehicle’s Chang’an. We did not make money. The 100 billion yuan worth of people must make money. Where did this money go? This also led to our new energy industry and the traditional industry is not the same, it may be the traditional automobile industry under the influence of the value of this profit flow, vehicle companies have a great right to speak or dominate, but in the new energy is just Speaking of this, this is greatly reduced, and it is shifting separately upstream and downstream.

Competitive restructuring is the evolution of industry from product competition to industry platform competition. Why is that? That is to say, we are now in the status quo of new energy vehicles, with a small quantity of single products and fast technology upgrades, and it is in competition with traditional cars. In particular, we say that subsidizing it will be very weak, and often our investment is very large. If you still make a single product yourself, or develop it by yourself, it is far from meeting this competitive demand. Everyone must be a sharer. The previous experts also talked about whether they are in the R&D, manufacturing, and service sectors. Must be the concept of sharing, or the concept of the platform, we all unite together to form an industry, so as to better compete with traditional cars. Therefore, we say that this is also an opportunity for our development in the transition period.

In terms of challenges, one of the challenges is the constant recharge of battery technology, and price anxiety remains the main reason that most consumers choose new energy vehicles. This will gradually improve. From my personal point of view, for example, after 400-500 km in terms of mileage, it will be a differentiation. Everybody will say that after the infrastructure is better, or in our operating model and sharing model, users will be divided. He will not blindly pursue his mileage. This will give us how to do a good job in this condition, use services or use infrastructure improvements to solve everyone's anxiety about mileage.

The second challenge is that the construction of the charging system cannot meet the needs of consumers and the distribution is not even. What we are talking about here is that we cannot meet consumer demand and the distribution is not even. We have statistics that just now Liu also talked about, that is to say, we have so many charging piles, or there are already so many charging piles, and the quantity is not enough for us to understand so far, but we do not meet the demand, not What is the need to meet? The distribution of piles is uneven, and the use of piles is inconvenient, not that of piles. Personally, I am also a user of new energy vehicles. I have specialized in such tests and experiences. Actually in Chongqing, including myself and some joint venture companies, we have built many piles for us. In fact, it is located throughout the entire city of Chongqing. Yes, but it is not in some convenient areas. It is not even in some public areas. This is one point. It restricts the needs of this consumer. It does not mean that there is not enough pile. There is also the inconvenience that we have just talked about, which means that each of our companies sells piles when they sell their cars. However, this pile is actually a personal property from the user's client. It is not shared and many piles are idle. Before the Energy Bureau's leadership also talked about only 10%, in fact most of the piles did not enter the use of the environment, or inconvenient for customers to use this environment, making our personal pile is often idle, I just very much agree with Liu Always talk about sharing, how to share the pile. So if we can really form a public network of private piles and form a public network of existing public piles, it will greatly improve, not just increase piles. Quantity to solve this charging system problem.

The third challenge is the continuous emergence of business models, but it is still not mature. We are good at these different car links, and we have a lot of exploration in the use of links. For example, we mentioned charging is also good, fast charge, slow charge, nude car sales, rental sales, etc., but these have not yet formed a virtuous cycle, or that their own benign cycle, this will continue to explore. Business does not solve the world will not be a great constraint, we Changan or everyone agree that we Changan has also been developing badly, in fact, just mentioned this business model we have not yet found. We have good technology and good products, but we do not dare to promote it in a large area or restrict it to this kind of business model. Now in our double-integration policy and under such a big development environment, we must find a way. This is the strong degree of control of double points. You have no way out, not that I have solved the problem of new energy vehicles based on my own development, so Saying that the business model has to continue to explore.

The fourth challenge is that in the next three to five years, the competition in the new energy automotive industry will be extremely cruel. There will be both a car-making transformation and a new emerging force. Let's take a look at our statistics, which are 16 countries that we all know will be in 2017. The total number of newly invested vehicle projects reached 91, and 21 provinces announced new energy projects with an investment scale of 528.3 billion. The capacity announced from now exceeds 20 million in 2020, which is 10 times that set by the national regulations. In 2020, we said that it will reach 2 million vehicles, which was set by the state in the year. There must be some water in this, but we know that the cruelty of competition must exist. How can we deal with such cruel competition? Focusing on our point of view is still the first product, which is how to create a reliable, safe, intelligent, personalized product.

To sum up, we say that the automotive industry has entered the era of 2.0. It is not a single manufacturing industry. It must be a manufacturing + service + travel solution solution. The opportunity is far greater than the challenge, that is to say this kind of green revolution and energy revolution. The environmental revolution, the traffic revolution, and the technological revolution must be to promote the automotive revolution. If we say that no revolution will certainly die, this is our conclusion. So we said that Changan proposed some plans such as the third innovation and entrepreneurship. New Energy also proposed some such strategies as the Shangri-La Plan.

Followed by the exploration of Chang'an.

We reflect on our eighteen years of development of the new energy industry:

First, through 18 years of industrial precipitation, we have built up a system of new energy competitiveness. From product R&D to manufacturing to industrial chain and supply chain, we have formed a market-oriented competitive capability, which has laid the foundation for our post-subsidy era. A good foundation.

Second, we have independently mastered the key core technologies. Among them, the “big three electricity”, especially the core control technology that we say, is completely autonomous.

Thirdly, although we have not pushed much in the market, we have already launched 21 models of vehicle products. It should be said that we are developing this vehicle based on the capability of independent research and development of traditional vehicles and the mastery of our core technologies. With the technology of the industry chain, we have a relatively good basis for product development and are well prepared for the post-subsidy era.

This year, we have two models listed on the market: the Yidong 460 and CS75 SUVs, including the products we put in last year. The entire product lineage is complete. From trolleys, cars, SUVs, EVs, and PHEVs, we have completed the building of the existing product lineage. . In the future, we will use a new platform to meet the challenges after 2020.

In the next stage of the plan, Changan released a brand new new energy strategy “Shangri-La Plan” to accelerate the transition to new energy. Based on previous analysis of opportunities, challenges, and foundations. Last year we released the contents of the core of the “Shangri-La Plan”. That means that by 2025 we will stop the sale of traditional fuel vehicles in a comprehensive manner and implement full-scale electrification. Based on this, we have four major strategic actions, as well as new adjustments in organizational structure, product development, and resource investment.

First, to build the world's leading and most powerful world-leading development capability, we integrate the existing global R&D system, focusing on the U.S. chassis center and the UK power center to build our new energy-specific chassis and power. Therefore, in the next three years, we will invest 10 billion yuan in R&D and build 56 new laboratories and 300 new energy specialized equipment. We are planning to establish a technology innovation center in the United States.

Second, build the 853's leading technology label, ultra-low energy consumption, super-charged, ultra-smart intelligence. Energy consumption is 100 kilometers per kWh. Super-charged charging is charging for 5 minutes and 200 megawatts of battery life. Hyper-Smart is intelligent driving, intelligent network connection, and intelligent interaction. It strengthens the integration of electric and intelligent to give users different experiences. Where is our traditional competition? It's not cheaper than others to have something that appeals to them. From our point of view, it is from the integration of electric and intelligent to give users a different experience.

The third is to build new energy smart products with emotional experience. The safest, most convenient and most intelligent products.

Fourth, build three dedicated platforms for pure electric power to realize our platformization and achieve our better experience and better performance to meet the needs of users after 2020.

Fifth, it is to carry out this kind of operation of new energy unmanned driving. That is to say, this kind of intelligent driving is not designed. It must be used. Unmanned driving means that you must be in a wide range of scenarios. The accumulation of use can only be achieved without driver, not that I'm in the lab, I designed it in the office, you don't need to get up and I think that drones can never go, so we say we have to take the lead in the driverless field In some demonstrations, in 2018 we will have to implement commercialized demonstration operations. That is to say, partial commercialization demonstration operations will be commercialized after 2020. This means extensive cooperation with the government and cooperation with partners. To achieve, not our own family to solve this problem.

Sixth, to carry out innovative marketing and services, we must first open up these marketing channels, we must not simply sell cars, we must be big data + customers + customer service operations such models to build our marketing system and services.

Seventh, build a value partnership vehicle, parts and innovative service platform. This is still a sharing concept that we all want to talk about, so we also welcome friends from all walks of life to join us in the next step of innovation and entrepreneurship, and we These come from R&D to marketing to service, these platforms, and the innovation of these new models.

Eighth, we must focus on these innovations. Therefore, we must market the operating mechanism, introduce these high-end talents, and explore some incentive mechanisms to support the realization of our “Shangri-La Plan”.

Chang'an is the world, tomorrow is better, thank you!