Since the beginning of March, domestic nitrochlorobenzene has ended a round of double-lit market and played a polarization trend again. As of the beginning of April, the mainstream price of nitrochlorobenzene fell from 6,400 yuan (ton price, the same below) to 6,000 yuan, and that of orthonitrochlorobenzene increased from 7,700 yuan to 8,800 yuan, and the export level even reached 9300 yuan or more. At 47%, extreme spreads even reached 60%, setting a new high since 2011.
The reason is due to the fact that the downstream demand is uneven, the cost is high, and the downstream exports are blocked.
Since March, the downstream companies of nitrochlorobenzene began to soften after a quick restocking market. After the nitrochlorobenzene enterprises gradually increased the operating rate, the utilization rates of downstream aminophenols, p-nitroaniline, p-aminoanisole, and dichlorobenzene increased slightly. In March, the overall demand did not reach the expected effect, and the recovery turned to a weaker trend. The sales price also fell back to a 6.7% drop, while o-nitrochlorobenzene was due to the downstream o-nitroaniline, o-aminophenol, and 3,3-dichlorobenzidine. The increase in demand for products such as o-dichlorobenzene and the promotion of good market conditions led to a steady increase in prices, which rose by more than 14% month-on-month. This phenomenon of uneven hot and cold is the main reason for this round of polarized market formation.
It is understood that raw material benzene has experienced a two-month rise since December last year, and after reaching a new high in February of this year, it has always maintained a high level of consolidation. And once there was a contrast between pure benzene and nitrochlorobenzene, the pressure on production companies was increasing day by day. This is one of the reasons why 28% of the manufacturers in China still have to stop production. In order to eliminate the pressure on raw material costs, the nitrochlorobenzene enterprises steadily pushed up the sales price of o-nitrochlorobenzene under the background of the favorable situation of o-nitrochlorobenzene downstream, in order to achieve the purpose of achieving an average cost of amortization of nitrochlorobenzene. This creates a bipolar pattern of decline.
According to feedback from relevant companies, the situation of enterprises such as 2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene downstream of nitrochlorobenzene, p-amino anisole, and p-aminophenol is not optimistic. One of the main reasons for this is dyes and pharmaceutical intermediates. Due to the obstruction of product exports, for example, the export of disperse dyestuffs in Zhejiang, the largest exporter of dyes, fell 12% year-on-year in the first two months of this year, while the sulphur dyes exhibited zero exports. As a result, production companies cannot achieve a reasonable operating rate. As of today, most 2,4-dinitrochlorobenzene companies are still discontinued, and para-aminoanisole, p-aminophenol, and other companies are also in a low operating rate for the domestic market. Negative negative effects have been formed.
However, the market differentiation of nitrochlorobenzene is expected to slow down. The industry believes that the recent adjustments are expected to be close to the bottom from the current situation of simultaneous contraction in volume and price, the smoothness of company shipments and low inventory. At the same time, as the international crude oil price is always at a high level, the international chemical market will be supported by the foundation and it will gradually recover. Once the export situation is opened, based on the current status that the nitrochlorobenzene and related products' social inventories have been consumed to a lower level, after entering May, it is expected to form a steady growth trend of domestic demand, and the phenomenon of insufficient supply will not be ruled out in the short term. However, due to the negative effects of the market laws of p-nitrochlorobenzene and o-nitrochlorobenzene, the kinetic energy that has once again substantially divided the market is already insufficient, and the market differentiation is expected to slow down, reaching a new balance point for difference.
According to a senior person who has been marketing nitrochlorobenzene for many years, according to the trend of market trends over the years, the market price difference between nitrochlorobenzene and o-nitrochlorobenzene is between 30% and 40%. Operation cycle.
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