The Occurrence of Locust in the Summer of 2008 and the Forecast of the Occurrence Trend of Locusts in Autumn

First, the general situation of summer locusts

(A) East Asian cornflower

Coastal Bohai Bay, North China Lake Bank, and medium-level occurrences (Level 3) along the Huanghe District in Henan and Shandong Provinces, including high-density plutonium patches in the North China Lake Bank and the Bohai Bay Rim Area, which increased compared to the previous year. Other reclamation areas Occurrence is light (Level 2). Occurrence area was 12.96 million mu, a decrease of 440,000 mu over the previous year. The main features: First, the area of ​​the main reclamation area is basically the same as last year. The area along the coast of Bohai Bay, the North China Lake Bank, and the section along the Henan and Shandong of Huanghua District totaled an area of ​​9.92 million mu, which was basically the same as the average of 9.86 million mu in the past three years. The area of ​​other reclamation areas was 3.0 million mu, which was 500,000 acres less than the previous year. . The second is that high-density gregarious pods appear early, have many spots and high density. In the late May of Hebei Anxin, high-density spotting films appeared, which was about 15 days earlier than usual; the area with a density of more than 10 per square meter reached 17.1 million mu, which was basically the same as that of the previous year; Tianjin Dagang had an area of ​​60,000 mu each. In the high-density swarm with more than 5000 square meters, the number of high-density spots in other reclamation areas has also increased from the previous year. The third is that most of the districts have a long history of unearthing and development is not neat. Affected by the large temperature fluctuations in the spring and the relatively heavy precipitation, the duration of the excavated soils in all major reclamation areas was more than one month, and the development progress was extremely irregular.

(B) Asiatic Flycatchers

Asiatic migratory locusts occurred in Xinjiang, Altay, Yili Prefecture, Tacheng, and Bozhou, and other agricultural areas occurred in a slight degree (Grade 2), with an area of ​​94.18 million mu, an increase of 27% over the same period of the previous year. Occurrence area of ​​farmland and agricultural-pastoral zone They were 257,400 mu and 684,400 mu respectively. The density of earthworms is generally 0.5-2 heads per square meter, which is lower than usual. However, there are more than 100 high-density cocoon spots per square meter in the interlaced areas of Ili. The main characteristics: Due to the high temperature in early spring and the sustained low temperature in the middle and late April, the initial period of excavation was earlier than that of the previous year. The development was extremely irregular and the duration was obviously elongated.

(III) Tibetan Hida

Tibetan locusts occurred slightly in Ganzi and Aba in Sichuan, Qamdo in Tibet, Lhasa in Tibet and Yushu in Qinghai (Level 2), with an area of ​​778,000 mu, a decrease of 26.7% from the same period of last year. The density of earthworms is generally 0.5-3 per square meter. Sichuan Litang, Dege, Shiqu, Qinghai Yushu and other regions have discovered high-density spots with more than 100 heads per square meter. The main characteristics of the occurrence are as follows: First, the cricket develops slowly and the growth period lengthens. In early July, the quails in 3-4 ages are still predominant in Sichuan, which is 15-20 days later than usual. The second is the proliferation of high density spots. Sichuan Shiqu County, Ganzi County, Dege County Wangbuding Township, Litanghao Township, Litang Township, Xiaba Township, Xiongba Township, Qinghai Yushu County Batang Township and other places have found high-density maggots.

(IV) Soil plough in the northern agricultural and pastoral area

In the northern agricultural and pastoral ecotones, medium-sized earthworms occurred (level 3), with Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang central and western regions, Xinjiang, and northern Hebei appearing to be more serious (level 4). As of July 10, a total area of ​​more than 42.6 million mu had occurred. The main types of occurrence are wide-winged backflies, Asian car rakes, horned horns, and Italian razor clams. The density of earthworms is generally 20-50 heads per square meter. Inner Mongolia Duolun, Zhuozi, Chayouhouqi, Chayouzhong Banner, Bahrain Left Banner, Bahrain Right Banner, Heilongjiang Sunwu, Xinjiang Hot Spring, Qinghe and Jimunai counties More than 300 high density per square meter. The main characteristics are: high winter base, high rainfall, high survival rate and neat hatching, farmland and grassland inlay, difficulty in prevention and control, large farmland relocation, and serious damage.

Second, the trend of the occurrence of autumn locusts

(A) East Asian cornflower

According to the investigation of the base number of summer remnants in each reclamation area and the current occurrence of fly loach in the South China reclamation area, combined with the comprehensive analysis of factors such as the ecological environment of the reclamation area and the meteorological conditions in summer and autumn, it is predicted that the overall occurrence of the autumn bunting will be slight (Level 2). The coastal areas, the North China Lake Bank, and the middle reaches of the Huanghe District in Henan and Shandong Provinces (Level 3), and high-density spotting films may occur in the Hebei, Quzhou, Baoding, Henan Puyang, Zhengzhou, and Tianjin Dagang. It is estimated that there will be an area of ​​10.3 million mu across the country, a decrease of 1 million mu over the previous year, and an area of ​​655 million mu will need to be controlled, which is basically the same as last year.蝗蝻 Unearthed in the period from late July to early August, the peak of the third age in the middle and late August.

Forecast of the occurrence trend of East Asian migratory locusts

The forecast is mainly based on:

1, the area of ​​the summer wreckage is basically the same as last year

According to statistics from 9 provinces (cities) including Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Shanxi, Tianjin, Hebei, Jiangsu, and Liaoning, the summer residual area was 860 million mu, which was basically the same as that of the previous year, of which Tianjin increased by 39% over the previous year. Liaoning, and Anhui, respectively, decreased by 44%, 54%, and 30% from the previous year, while other major areas were basically the same as last year.

2, the summer residual density slightly higher than the previous year

The summer residual density is slightly higher than in the previous year, but it is lower than the average value in recent years. According to statistics, the summer residual density of 40-150 hectares per hectare is 4,057,000 mu, which is 20% lower than the previous year; the area of ​​150-450 hectares per hectare is 2,809,000 mu, and the area of ​​450-1500 hectares per hectare is 1,449,000 mu. The area of ​​more than 1500 heads per hectare was 282,100 mu, which was an increase of 4.7%, 17.6% and 9.2% respectively over the previous year. More than 5,000 high-density residual debris per hectare appeared in Dagang, Tianjin, Huanghua, Hebei, and Fuyang, Henan, which are the highest values ​​in recent years.

3, meteorological conditions have a certain inhibitory effect on the occurrence of autumn

According to the forecast of the National Climate Center, the temperatures in the main reclamation areas in midsummer are slightly lower than those in the same period of the year, and the rainfall is much more than normal in the same period of the year. In particular, rainfall in eastern North China, eastern Huanghuai, and southern Liaoning will be 2-5 times higher than normal. In some areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River and Huang-Huai Region, there may be a process of heavy rainfall. For example, in the period from late July to early August, long-term strong rainfall will have a certain inhibitory effect on the hatching and development of cockroaches in the main area. .

(B) Asiatic Flycatchers

With the lack of food in the steppe and agricultural-pastoral areas, the locusts will gradually enter farmland hazards, and the area and extent of farmland locusts will increase. It is estimated that an area of ​​nearly 140 million mu will occur throughout the year. The risk of alien pests entering the border areas of Altay, Tacheng, Bozhou, and Yili in Xinjiang still exists.

(III) Tibetan Hida

The regional geographical environment in Tibet is complex. It is difficult to prevent and control and the amount of remaining insects is relatively large, resulting in a large number of insect pests in the autumn. It is expected to occur lightly in river valleys such as the Jinsha River, Yalu Zangbo River and Dadu River (Grade 2), Sichuan Shiqu, Ganzi, Litang and Dege, Tibet Zhagao, Jiangyan, Linzhi, Nanmulin, Nimu, etc. In some areas, high density spots may occur, and an area of ​​1.3 million mu will occur throughout the year.

(IV) Soil plough in the northern agricultural and pastoral area

It is expected that the fall season will continue to occur in Inner Mongolia, Heilongjiang and the central and western parts of Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and northern Hebei (Level 4). The main populations are Asian car rakes, yellow eagle car rakes, and wrinkle knee rakes. The appropriate control period is from late July to 8th. In the first half of this month, the area will reach 67 million mu.