Looking at the sales volume of heavy trucks in the next year from the perspective of overcapacity and insufficient consumption (II)

Excessive production capacity (production capacity) excess, everyone is no stranger. Start with the heavy truck industry data.

According to the incomplete statistics of the “First Commercial Vehicle Network” in the above table, the current production capacity of the nine heavy truck companies on the single table has exceeded 900,000. In China, there are about 30 heavy truck manufacturers with announcements (catalogues), and about 40 non-announced quasi-heavy truck manufacturers. If the production capacity of these manufacturers is included, the current domestic capacity of heavy trucks is at least 1.2 million. Like the newly-launched Universiade heavy trucks and Changan heavy trucks, the current production capacity can reach 50,000 vehicles and 40,000 vehicles respectively, while the future planning of the Universiade heavy trucks is even 100,000 vehicles. Therefore, the overall capacity of the industry will reach 1.5-1.8 million units in the short term. It is also reported that heavy truck capacity may exceed 2 million vehicles next year. Industry insiders generally do not agree that the author's sales in the heavy truck market will drop by 50% next year. However, as of now, other forecasts that the author sees do not believe that the sales of heavy trucks will not exceed 1.15 million vehicles in the next year, and most of the viewpoints will not exceed 100%. 10,000 cars. Weak demand for heavy trucks next year, in addition to the growth rate of fixed asset investment I mentioned in the third article will slow down, there are such as diesel shortage, rising oil prices, the closure of many small logistics companies, consumer shrinkage. It seems that the overcapacity in the heavy-duty truck industry may not be limited to the general expectation.

Look at the entire automotive industry.

On September 4, Chen Bin, Director of the Industry Coordination Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, once again warned the auto industry of excess capacity in the Tianjin Automobile Industry Forum. Chen Bin said that with the promotion of local governments, the rapid expansion of domestic auto companies has exacerbated the risk of overcapacity. According to statistics from China.com, this year's new wave of automobile production capacity expansion has rapidly begun. Many major domestic passenger car manufacturers including Chang'an, Chery, SAIC, Dongfeng Nissan, Dongfeng Honda, and Beijing Hyundai have announced large-scale The capacity expansion plan will start construction of these new plants one after another this year. According to incomplete statistics, the total vehicle capacity under construction and new construction will be more than 8 million vehicles, and by 2012 China's vehicle production capacity will exceed 21 million. According to incomplete statistics, the planned production capacity of the top 30 auto companies (groups) in China at the end of 2015 was 31.24 million. Last year, China’s automobile production was the largest in the world with 13 million vehicles, accompanied by the suspension of autos to the countryside, the replacement of automobile trade-in policies, the reduction or elimination of the preferential tax rate for small-displacement auto purchases, and the new vehicle and vessel usage tax to be implemented. (The overall increase in the use of the cost of the car), the rise in oil prices (the price of light crude oil futures in the New York market for delivery in January will increase by US$88/barrel), the continuous increase in parking fees in major cities, and the automobile industry in the next five years Will it grow another two times? If it is not possible, the overcapacity in the auto industry is inevitable.

In fact, the auto industry is not yet on the "blacklist" of overcapacity in the country. The overcapacity in many industries is much more serious than that in the automotive industry. According to the September 2009 report of the Development and Reform Commission and other departments on suppressing overcapacity in some industries and several suggestions for guiding the healthy development of redundant industries, the data on the overcapacity in some industries are calculated as follows: Steel, coal chemical, and cement excess capacity reach 30% respectively. 40%; electrolytic aluminum production capacity has accounted for 42.9% of the world, utilization rate is only 73.2%; shipbuilding capacity accounts for 36% of the world, more than 70% of production depends on exports; flat glass production capacity accounts for 70% of the world. In addition, new production capacity is being formed; crude steel production capacity also accounts for 70% of the world's total; wind power equipment capacity in 2010 will exceed 20 million kilowatts, but the annual installed capacity is only about 10 million kilowatts; polysilicon production capacity in 2008 is 20,000 tons, On the demand, only about 4,000 tons was produced, and another 80,000 tons was under construction. These industries are basically directly related to investment in fixed assets. In the third article of this series, the author analyzed the growth rate of fixed asset investment will be difficult to sustain. Once there is no high-growth demand support, how will the excess of these industries be digested?

The data of the "11th China Macroeconomic Operation and Policy Forum" on December 3 showed that if China's economic sector is divided into 24 sectors, 21 sectors are overcapacity, and only 3 are undercapacity.

“At present, in the real economy sector, some industries have already experienced excess capacity, and we must be careful about investment.” This was when the People’s Bank of China’s Governor Zhou Xiaochuan was interviewed by the “China Finance” headed by the People’s Bank of China in January this year. The statement made. Zhou Xiaochuan also stated that some industries, especially some conventional manufacturing industries, have experienced excess capacity, and some infrastructure areas also have similar problems of overcapacity. "Such as some roads, although necessary in the long run, there will be no traffic problems when investing too early. A large number of credit funds are invested in redundant construction projects or overcapacity projects, which not only violate the development goals of economic restructuring. It will also bring risks to the quality of bank credit."

As Zhou Xiaochuan said, China not only has excess manufacturing capacity, but also has excess infrastructure. In 2009, the use of highways in China was estimated to be 12% of the average level of the OECD countries. Many smaller airports use only half of their capacity. A traffic researcher from the National Development and Reform Commission warned that the proposed 18,000-km high-speed railway would face the problem of non-recoverable costs, and “may not be able to achieve the lowest passenger traffic balance”.

Lang Xianping views China’s overcapacity in this way: “As construction drives GDP, consumption is compressed to 35%, while production capacity continues to expand to 70%, and 70% of our production capacity is only 35% of consumption, then the other 30% that cannot be consumed is called Is it called a serious overcapacity!"

Whether the economic crisis can avoid Marx's view that the socialization of large-scale production and the unplanned production of individuals is the root cause of the capitalist economic crisis and an irreconcilable contradiction. This contradiction is not well resolved in socialist China.

For example, for each heavy truck company, even if each company carries out planned production and expansion of production, there is no plan for the entire heavy truck industry. Although the National Development and Reform Commission will set some thresholds on the automotive manufacturers' qualifications and automotive product catalogs, there is still no way to control the total capacity of the industry. The measures taken by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology can only be a warning against possible excess capacity risks.

The country's macro-control can slow down or weaken the economic crisis. However, since the Keynesian prevailing in the 1920s, the economic crisis has not been eliminated. On the contrary, there have also been economic crises manifested in the form of stagflation. In recent years, the world's economic crisis has also occurred from time to time, not to mention the economic crisis in individual countries.

In the next article, the author will discuss how the country's macroeconomic regulation and control are likely to resolve the huge risks of the current Chinese economy.