Is China's new energy auto industry financial subsidies a honey or a poison? !

Since the demonstration and promotion of new energy vehicles in China's “thousand cities in ten cities” in 2009, China’s new energy vehicle subsidy policy has been tenth this year. It can be said that the new energy automobile industry in China is just under the central and local double subsidies and the government's strong push. From the bus, rental, postal, to the logistics vehicle, the operating vehicle to the full-scale outbreak of today's passenger car, it has been established early. The world's largest new energy vehicle production and marketing country's status.

However, the development of a new industry is like a child's growth. It is impossible to survive birth and childhood even if there is no parental care and feeding, but if it is young or even adolescent, he will be treated as a baby, parents. You will find yourself struggling to be thankless. Your child will never grow up except for rebellion and dissatisfaction. This is the current situation in China's new energy automotive industry.

The first thing to say is that China's new energy automotive industry has entered a growth period rather than a budding period. In 2017, the proportion of auto production and sales, new energy vehicles have accounted for more than 2%, 2% is an important watershed for industrial development. If the proportion of emerging industries is only below 2%, the industry is still in its infancy and it is still focusing on the education market. And after 2% is in the growth period, the market foundation has been formed, and accelerated growth, all kinds of capital and organizations will intervene, there is no obvious advantage of the brand, the market in the rapid growth process is also rapid survival of the fittest, the dominant brands and products will gradually It is highlighted that in the hurricane period where the proportion is above 16%, there is no suspense in market selection, and a few oligarchs have monopolized the market. Just like the current new energy bus market, the proportion of new car replacements for new energy buses has exceeded 66%, and A handful of leaders have dominated the market.

The second thing to say is that the financial subsidies for China's new energy vehicles have turned from honey to poison. Many people have asked me whether China’s new energy vehicles can’t live without government subsidies. After subsidies from 2020 onwards, whether new energy vehicles in China will disappear with the withdrawal of subsidies. My answer is: The financial subsidy for China's new energy vehicles has changed from honey to poison in the past two years. Without this drug, it may be painful for a while. But with this drug, the industry will suffer for a lifetime. Lao Fan will count down the subsidy policy from the six crimes in the process of honey poisoning.

One of the sins: bad money drives out good money. As long as there are financial subsidies, there will be speculative fraud, new energy vehicles are new products, the market awareness is not high, good products in terms of technical content, parts quality, product service and other aspects compared with inferior products Cost is a big difference. The existence of subsidies, especially high financial subsidies, allows a group of speculators to mix in and randomly put together one product for investment in the market or for recycling within the self-system. The purpose is to subsidize. The financial subsidies have become Tang Yao's desire to bite a piece, and the result will be the market. This mixed turmoil has made customers who are not familiar with this product get a very bad customer experience, and they have resisted it, making it difficult for excellent companies and products to be marketed on a large scale.

The second crime: the high cost of supervision has become a deadlock. If a company is cheated, it is necessary to prevent fraud, so the door must be locked. If there is not enough lock, it will be locked again. Finally, the key of the supervisory board cannot be found. The subsidy is applied at all levels, and the vehicle's actual vehicle is checked at one station. If there is slight inconsistency, it will be called back first. Otherwise, the inspectors will take responsibility. National monitoring platform, and each host plant access to real-time monitoring of the vehicle is limited, leading to reporting the mileage of the application of the report compared with the monitoring platform there is a very big difference, in 2018 the first batch of subsidies reported more than half can not be approved, can not be said not Monitor system problems.

The third crime: The company is not operating normally. The subsidy policy is basically adjusted year by year. In order to adapt to the new subsidy policy, the enterprises are in an abnormal state of production in the first half of each year, and production is suspended or cut in production. In the second half of the year, the subsidy for the coming year will be used to retreat the slopes and desperately produce so that the channels can be used for stockpile, even Self-producing and self-recycling, digest the stocks in the coming year. For industrial enterprises, the annual production only produces half a year, but it has to bear the fixed cost of the whole year. The skilled workers can't recruit, can not stay, and have a huge negative impact on the normal business of the company.

The fourth sin: The industry shifts around the policy rather than the market. What types of products the market needs, what the level of technology products were originally determined by the market, under the baton of the subsidy policy has been determined by the subsidy policy makers. The mistakes made in the development of the 6-8-meter passenger car subsidy standard from 2013 to 2015 make this model a hard-hit area for repairs and subsidies. There is still a large amount of rubbish produced at the time and there is no market space left in the market to serve as a stirring stick. character of. The subsidy policy has not lowered the subsidy for hydrogen fuel cells, and the technical threshold for continuous increase in battery energy density and cruising range. As a result, all parts of the country have been buying parts to put hydrogen fuel cell vehicles together. They can neither consider nor have any conditions for use. Again. The power lithium battery in the material system is not a major change in the case, energy density and cycle life, safety performance, charge and discharge rate are both see-saw, blindly emphasize the energy density and loss of cycle life, safety performance, charge and discharge rate, which What is the use of batteries? The theoretical energy density of lithium iron phosphate did not exceed 180Wh/kg, and some companies announced that the monomer energy density was 176 Wh/kg, and the battery pack made 140Wh/kg to meet the national technical standard for the ceiling of related product subsidies. Doing fake. Say cruising range, including operating vehicles, more than 90% of vehicles running mileage does not exceed 180 kilometers per day, but now the maximum subsidy standard requirements are more than 450 kilometers of battery life, so the major car companies launched models are 450, so 360, will you give you a Tesla 500 kilometers in length and you can easily drive from Chengdu to Chongqing? Or everyone is in the process of opening a car, or everyone is ready to charge once a week. Long battery life currently depends mainly on installing batteries. The cost of batteries accounts for about 50% of the total vehicle cost. The increase in costs and waste caused by over-loading of batteries is a problem for the society as a whole. Our subsidy policy is to serve less than 10% of the usage scenarios.

The fifth crime: The payment method of the subsidy will overwhelm the entire industry. In order to prevent the recurrence of large-scale commercial arbitrage and fraudulent repairs in 2015, the four ministries and commissions in the country spent almost 11 months in 2016 to investigate corporate defrauding and did not announce new recommended catalogues until December 2016. The year-long sales license work was reduced to one month. In 2017, a new subsidy policy was announced. In addition to the significant fall in subsidy standards, the most important thing is that non-individual purchases of cars need to run 30,000 kilometers and the following year's liquidation. This means that it takes at least one and a half to two years for non-individual customers to purchase cars from sales to subsidy, and the proportion of subsidy for country-occupied vehicles accounts for at least 50% of the sales price of cars in 2017, and the subsidy will be reduced in 2018. After 40% there are also more than 30%. Such a large sales return can only be turned once a year and a half to two years, making the entire industry's accounts receivable turnover rate and total asset turnover rate lower than the normal level of various industries, rapid decline in subsidies, rapid decline in industry gross profit, Under the background that the industry's net profit is also low, the sharp decline in the asset turnover rate has made the overall industry's overall profitability low, and the huge amount of new capital is facing a dilemma. It will appear in the trap of a beast. At the beginning of 2018, a batch of logistics vehicle operators had a significant loss of rental vehicles in order to be able to salvage sunk costs as much as possible.

In addition, such a high proportion of delayed sales payment makes the cash flow of the entire industry extremely scarce, and the abnormality of the triangle debt is very serious. The amount of car companies is not fighting the market but is fighting. There is no effective method of diverting the industry-originated funds “Bare Lake” formed by financial subsidies. Only financial companies, auto finance companies or trust companies behind individual vehicle companies have made liquidity financing in their systems, and the amount has also increased. Without the related non-bank financial institutions as vehicle companies of the affiliated companies, huge amounts of subsidies have long been burdened with difficulties, and credit default behaviors against suppliers and financial institutions have emerged in an endless stream. As an emerging industry has neither high profits nor cash flow, the flocked capital in 2015 and 2016 will accelerate the adjustment and reshuffle of the entire industry, and the entire industry has been overwhelmed by the subsidized payment methods.

Sixth crime: local protectionism is difficult to break. The central government has subsidy policies for new energy vehicles, and local governments often complement the central government policies and provide local subsidies. Local subsidies come from local finance. Because local auto companies do not contribute much to local finance, local financial subsidies are given priority to local auto makers and local brands, while local auto companies get local subsidies to set various types of protection thresholds. Due to the existence of local protectionism, many products that were originally market competitive were unable to form a fair competition pattern because they could not obtain local subsidies, making it difficult to fully expand the market.

Seven of sins: Poisoning the entire industry. Although the new energy auto industry chain suffers great damage from subsidies, it is interesting that the entire industry cannot avoid a topic - subsidy. Vehicle development first look at the subsidy standards, product sales first look at whether the local sales of subsidies or local subsidies can be found, looking for the first channel operators can get local subsidies, end-customers to buy a car to ask whether it is deducted To supplement the price, financial lending loans or mortgage loans provided by financial institutions are first asked whether it is based on the amount of subsidy after deduction. People think that China's new energy vehicles cannot survive without subsidies. This is a morbid industry. It seems that the entire industry is still inseparable from this poison because of subsidized poisoning.

Eight of sin: The central and local governments are overburdened and the policy credibility is greatly reduced. China’s new energy vehicles are growing at a rate of more than 50% each year. No matter whether the central government or local finances are overwhelmed, but the promises have been fulfilled, the policy has been adjusted year by year, the subsidy standards have rapidly declined, and the central policy has been serious. Sex is greatly reduced, and local subsidy policy is a direct deceit in the implementation of many local governments. The products of non-local car companies directly do not cover, or delay for a long time, without success, what is the credibility of the government and the policy?

Since the subsidy policy has already changed from honey to poison, China's new energy auto industry has no quick way to rehabilitate drugs. The old-fashioned way of thinking is that there are some ways to deal with it.

First of all, the ban on the symptoms is to extend the current subsidy policy until the end of 2020. However, governments at all levels, especially the central government, must provide channels to subsidize the realization of the “barrier lake”. How can such unclaimed receivables be realised? The four central ministries and commissions, especially the Ministry of Finance, can't just care about their health. A huge financial subsidy can be realized only after one and a half to two years. If this path is not opened, the industry will not be able to develop normally. .

Secondly, the principle of governance is the rapid withdrawal of financial subsidies. The government gives new energy vehicles adequate road rights. Both passenger cars and commercial vehicles can implement the dual-point system and establish a carbon point exchange to conduct carbon credit transactions. Other problems were solved by the market. At present, many new energy automotive product manufacturers have publicly promised to guarantee an eight-year or 300,000-kilometer warranty. As long as they purchase product quality insurance for this promise, banks and non-bank financial institutions can apply for five years. Financing leases or mortgages, instead of the current two or three years. Although non-subsidized new energy vehicle products have high one-time purchase cost, the five-year financial lease or mortgage is evenly distributed to the monthly cost that is still lower than the current cost of oil vehicle. It will be a lot lower. Coupled with the establishment of distributed energy storage power plants, valley power, abandoned water, abandoned wind, and abandoned electricity will be fully utilized, and the difference in oil and electricity will become more apparent. Without fiscal cash subsidies, the new energy automobile market that has entered the growth period will fight for products, services, and costs rather than speculation. The market environment will be clarified and customer experience will not be uneven. The Chinese new energy automobile industry can truly achieve a bend. Road overtaking.