According to a report by Dow Jones last week, the latest five-year global energy outlook report issued by the International Energy Agency (IEA) pointed out that due to the continued rise in oil prices and the increasingly stringent environmental protection requirements in various countries, global biofuel production is growing strongly. In 2005, the global biofuel production reached 650,000 barrels per day, which was more than four times higher than in 2000. It is estimated that by 2011, the global biofuel production will reach 1.2 million barrels per day, nearly double the current production volume.
The IEA's statistics on globally planned or started biofuel projects show that from 2006 to 2011, the global potential new supply of ethanol and biodiesel is expected to reach 1 million barrels/day. However, the agency also pointed out that some medium-term biofuel projects still have large uncertainties. Taking into account the current policy and economic environment, there is no doubt that the global biofuel production capacity will grow rapidly in the next few years.
The report said that Brazil, the United States, and the European Union will be the main force in the world's new biofuel production capacity in the next few years; Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand will also rise rapidly, with the EU and the United States as potential export markets. Under these circumstances, Brazil and the United States, two major biofuel producers, will gradually lose their dominant position in the world. It is predicted that the share of the two countries in the global ethanol market will drop from 92% in 2005 to 78% in 2008. In 2008, the EU’s biodiesel production will more than double from 2005, and ethanol production will also increase significantly from 14,000 barrels/day in 2005 to 71,000 barrels/day.
IEA believes that the relationship between biofuels and food prices and oil prices is uncertain. Only when the oil price is higher than 40 US dollars/barrel, the production of ethanol from sugar cane is competitive; the production of biodiesel from animal fat has competition. The premise of sex is that the corresponding oil price is above $60/barrel. The competitive oil price for biodiesel production from other raw materials is above US$70/barrel. Unless production costs are substantially reduced, the production of these biofuels will continue to rely on the government's industrial support policy.
The IEA pointed out that the current generation of second-generation biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol, which is sought after by green energy advocates, is unlikely to play an important role in the global biofuel market in the next five years. However, some second-generation biofuel demonstration units have already begun construction in Canada, Spain, and the United States. The development of second-generation biofuel technologies will eventually reduce the burden of first-generation biofuels that require large amounts of food and land.
The IEA's statistics on globally planned or started biofuel projects show that from 2006 to 2011, the global potential new supply of ethanol and biodiesel is expected to reach 1 million barrels/day. However, the agency also pointed out that some medium-term biofuel projects still have large uncertainties. Taking into account the current policy and economic environment, there is no doubt that the global biofuel production capacity will grow rapidly in the next few years.
The report said that Brazil, the United States, and the European Union will be the main force in the world's new biofuel production capacity in the next few years; Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand will also rise rapidly, with the EU and the United States as potential export markets. Under these circumstances, Brazil and the United States, two major biofuel producers, will gradually lose their dominant position in the world. It is predicted that the share of the two countries in the global ethanol market will drop from 92% in 2005 to 78% in 2008. In 2008, the EU’s biodiesel production will more than double from 2005, and ethanol production will also increase significantly from 14,000 barrels/day in 2005 to 71,000 barrels/day.
IEA believes that the relationship between biofuels and food prices and oil prices is uncertain. Only when the oil price is higher than 40 US dollars/barrel, the production of ethanol from sugar cane is competitive; the production of biodiesel from animal fat has competition. The premise of sex is that the corresponding oil price is above $60/barrel. The competitive oil price for biodiesel production from other raw materials is above US$70/barrel. Unless production costs are substantially reduced, the production of these biofuels will continue to rely on the government's industrial support policy.
The IEA pointed out that the current generation of second-generation biofuels, such as cellulosic ethanol, which is sought after by green energy advocates, is unlikely to play an important role in the global biofuel market in the next five years. However, some second-generation biofuel demonstration units have already begun construction in Canada, Spain, and the United States. The development of second-generation biofuel technologies will eventually reduce the burden of first-generation biofuels that require large amounts of food and land.
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