The heavy truck market in China is known as the barometer and barometer of the national economy. In 2009 and 2010, it benefited from domestic macroeconomic growth, increased investment in fixed assets, continuous increase in the total volume of road freight, and the arrival of major regular vehicle updates. Driven by a series of favorable factors, the heavy-duty truck market has continued to grow rapidly. In 2010, a total of 1.02 million heavy trucks were sold, an increase of 60% year-on-year. This is the first time that the annual sales volume of the heavy truck market in China exceeded the one million mark and continued to dominate the world's largest. Heavy truck market.
Since 2011, despite the unfavorable factors such as the soaring oil prices, unregulated fines on roads, and low freight rates caused by vicious competition, the heavy truck market has continued to develop with irresistible steps. Although from the end of 2010 to the present, the industry and all media communities have been clamoring for the 2011 heavy-duty truck market due to turmoil in their voices, and they all believe that the heavy-duty trucks and heavy-duty trucks are both in a state of collapse or are about to collapse. The business is bleak and the overall situation is not optimistic and is still rather pessimistic.
Even the world-famous company Goldman Sachs stated that the Chinese heavy truck market will fall by 12.4% to 850,000 vehicles this year, mainly due to the decline in demand caused by the regulation, coupled with the current inventory of 3-4 months, and the adverse regulatory atmosphere, It is expected that sales will only pick up until the four seasons, and it will still depend on whether the policy has been relaxed.
From the end of 2010 to the present, after more than half of the Chinese market research, research on policies and regulations, and experience in judging the sales of heavy trucks over the past few years and the truck's production experience in the past 30 years, the author is still deviating from his own thinking: 2011 heavy trucks The market will still be able to reach a scale of one million vehicles, and even once again exceeded the million mark.
According to authoritative data, from January to May 2011, the country’s overall sales of heavy trucks (including non-integrated vehicles and semi-trailer tractors) were 479,489, which represented a -2.29% increase. Excluding certain slumps in the sales volume of Sinotruk and FAW, the sales of other heavy trucks are all rising. At present, nearly 500,000 vehicles have been sold in the first five months. In the second half of the year, there are still seven months to sell 100,000 vehicles in one month. To achieve the expected goal of one million vehicles, there should be no suspense, unless It is a war or an irresistible natural disaster that resembles the Great East Japan Earthquake.
From the sales of complete vehicles (cargo trucks), from January to May 2011, a total of 167,872 vehicles were sold, a year-on-year increase of 34.7%, which is much higher than the 34% of the total trucks. And the top six all are China's mainstream heavy truck companies, indicating that the market demand for their products is very high and is expected to operate at this high level in the second half of the year.
The non-complete models (type II chassis) also fell slightly by -2.86%, which is almost negligible. The decline in sales is also centered on the liberation of China National Heavy Duty Truck and FAW. However, we do not know that these two state-owned car companies are in the process of strategic and tactical adjustment of the business strategy and product horizontal or vertical upgrade, and will sweep away the momentum in the second half, we will wait and see.
In addition, NMedia continued to report fraudulently that in the first five months, the entire heavy truck company had 350,000-400,000 inventory. Therefore, the pressure warehouse is huge. The author believes that it is completely nonsense and has no evidence at all. The author learned from the old friends of big truck companies that all of them were superimposed. In the first quarter of 2011, there was only a maximum of 5-10 million press stores, which was within the normal range, but now it is basically digested.
The sales situation of tractors and dump trucks was good in 2010, so dealer stocks are also normal in early 2011. Moreover, there are thousands of distributors and manufacturers' transit stores throughout the country. This inventory is simply insignificant. As we all know, the volume of a “heavy wheel†of a heavy truck is about 4-6 times that of a car. Therefore, any dealer does not have such a large site for storage. In addition, the price of a heavy truck is also more expensive than a mid-level sedan. Is there any one dealer who dares to risk high-interest loans from the bank and sells the product? ?
In the first five months of 2011, 121,315 semitrailer tractors were sold at a cumulative growth rate of -27.54%. Less than 10,000 cars are expected to be in stock. The market with smaller quasi-trailer vehicles with a total mass of ≤25 tons sold 2847 vehicles, a positive increase of 6.67%. The market has a large 25 tons. The total mass of quasi-trailer models is ≤ 40 tons. The model sold 105,698 vehicles, an increase of -33%. 40 tons of total quasi-trailer models sold 12770 vehicles, a cumulative increase of more than 90%. Although it is a model with a small market share, heavy-duty heavy-duty trucks with large power and large tonnage have become the best models for the current and future market development.
The author still optimistically expected that in the second half of 2011, the heavy truck market will go out of the current sluggish situation, and with the help of the country's soon-to-be-advanced system, it will enter a fast-rising channel and realize the market expectation of one million vehicles again.
On June 8, 2011, the State Council Standing Conference studied and deployed eight complementary measures to promote the development of the logistics industry. The industry is known as the "State of the Eight." Including reducing the tax burden on logistics companies, reducing bridge fees and tolls, and increasing land support for the logistics industry. The State Council promulgated the "State of the Eight" logistics industry will benefit greatly, among which heavy truck companies will be the biggest beneficiaries, and the heavy truck market will usher in yet another gold policy auto market.
Reduced tolls Business tax in the logistics industry is levied at 3%. In response, the State Council proposed that the overpass fees for the logistics industry should be reduced, and the non-stop charging system should be implemented. Strengthen the urban distribution management, solve the problems of difficult city transit distribution, difficulty in dispatching delivery trucks and other issues. In order to promote the development of the logistics industry, the State Council has proposed to further improve the taxation pilot scheme for the distribution tax balances of logistics companies, expand the scope of pilots, and promote it as soon as possible. The problem of inconsistent business tax rates for warehousing, distribution, and freight forwarding, and transportation links should be studied and resolved as soon as possible. In addition, land use tax policies for land for bulk storage facilities need to be improved.
On June 9, 2011, the Ministry of Finance and the Ministry of Commerce jointly issued an announcement, clarifying the scope, conditions, and standards for subsidies for the retirement and replacement of old cars in 2011, and raising the funding subsidy standards for the retirement of some old cars. The announcement first explicitly continued to provide capital subsidy for urban public transport, rural passenger vehicles and early-stage scrapped heavy-duty trucks that meet certain conditions, be retired in advance, and appropriately extend the useful life of subsidized vehicles, including urban public transport, rural passenger transport, and heavy cargo loading. The useful lives of subsidized vehicles such as automobiles are adjusted from 7 to 9, 4 to 8 and 7 to 9 years to more than 8 years (including 8 years), more than 6 years (including 6 years), and more than 10 years (including 10 years). ) Less than 15 years.
At the same time, in order to enhance the attractiveness of the subsidy policy, the subsidy standards for city buses, rural passenger transport, and heavy-duty trucks will be adjusted from 15,000 yuan, 10,000 yuan, and 5,000 yuan to 18,000 yuan and 11,000 yuan, respectively, in accordance with the subsidies for automobile replacement. 18,000 yuan. The above-mentioned supporting measures of this series of policies will be more conducive to the heavy truck market once again to be brand-new, and then go out of the pseudo-low-lying situation.
At the same time, although China's Euro IV refined oil quality is expected to reach the standard within 5-10 years, due to political factors, the 2012 National IV emission standards will still be implemented on time, which will greatly stimulate the end of 2011 to account for the heavy truck market. About 95 percent of China III heavy trucks sold off. Therefore, in addition to the policy factors at the end of 2011, all heavy truck companies are sure to issue a series of promotion measures in order to complete their annual tasks. There will be a high sales peak at the end of 2011.
To sum up, China’s economy is still running at a high speed with this giant engine, rapid development of infrastructure and the transportation of food, clothing, housing, and shelter for 1.4 billion people. In addition, the inertia of the huge traits inherent in the heavy truck market and the subjective and objective factors such as China's special policy auto market are all undoubtedly driving the 2011 heavy truck market to the peak of one million vehicles!
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