In 1956, for the first time in the magazine, there was an idea map of a car that could be driven without steering the steering wheel. Today's illusions have become a reality and are likely to be insignificant after ten years: market research company IHS Automotive expects that the number of self-driving cars will reach 230,000 in 2025 and increase to 11.8 million in 2035; consultancy Frost & Sullivan’s Prophecy is more direct: In the future, cars that do not have the autopilot feature will not be permitted to enter the city or even be allowed to enter the road.

At least in 1956, as one of the symbols of industrial civilization, cars did a good job of extending the human legs. But now, it is clearly out of tune with people's mobile life, so when the "outsiders" Google unmanned technology exposure, you can think of those traditional car giants are almost a little panic, in order to not repeat the tragedy of Nokia, scrambled out "I There are also! I also have!", and then took out their own self-driving cars - although the concept is different, but almost certainly, when the car becomes a third space that humans can freely use, its impact will inevitably exceed the traffic itself .

 

People and cars may be due to the strong anchor effect. When referring to autopilot, it's hard not to first think of Google’s driverless car, no throttle, brakes, steering wheel, and only two buttons to start and stop. The design is very consistent with the image of Google disruptors. But at least for the moment, in terms of the relationship between humans and cars, most of the manufacturers' self-driving cars are not as aggressive as Google, and they may be called "auto-cruise."

Take the ModelSP85D, Tesla's newly upgraded version of the ModelS, as an example. Just as humans evolved a sensory system, this car has basically its own "reflection arc": 12 ultrasonic sensors are installed around the body. And the camera can realize functions such as automatic parking, automatic cruise, automatic control of vehicle speed, and lane departure warning, and can “see” distant places in low visibility, basically acting as a good helper for human beings.

In fact, this is Tesla's interpretation of the term "autopilot" - giving humans a steering wheel. Wang Wenjia, Engineering Director of Tesla Asia Pacific, told the Timeline: “The concept of autopilot proposed by us is somewhat similar to that of an aircraft, or whether it requires trained pilots to control the aircraft. It is not fully automated like Google. This is two concepts, not Say they are not good, but we have different technical paths. We still want to control the initiative in the hands of drivers."

Baidu also holds the same view. They focus on the data acquisition phase and try to improve the autopilot technology by creating high-precision 3D environmental maps. Yu Kai, vice president of the Baidu Deep Learning Institute (IDL), compared the relationship between humans and cars to "chevalier and horse": "When you are riding a horse, it will find a path, but you are at any time Want to control, it can be done, because people are the main body of control.” In other words, as the largest machine that the average person can control, the pleasure of driving a car is still very important, a psychologist has shown that: when people are in In an observing and safe machine such as a car, the boundaries of the self-awareness of the driver will be expanded. After all, the human body is so fragile that it is quite cool to "tame" a big machine like riding a horse.

Therefore, in Wang Wenjia’s view, the relationship between people and cars in the future should be arbitrary: “I personally feel that the driverless future will be used more widely in public transportation. As for private vehicles, the purpose of your car is definitely not to say If you come to pick me up, you will be able to solve the problem by renting a car, or if you want to drive. The future I predict is that I’m tired. If I don’t want to open, let the car drive itself. I want to drive. I think the road conditions are good. The scenery outside the window is pretty good. open."

In any case, automatic driving will make driving easier. You know, today's consumers don't seem to have much patience. In a sense, this is an age when consumers are tired of manuals. People are accustomed to pointing and learning while on the screen. You can hardly believe in the future. The relationship with the machine (not to mention the daily car) is to spend thousands of dollars to a specialized school to learn from the "down bar," which may be contrary to the philosophy of technology that "people and machines are co-evolving."

Of course, even so, Wang Wenjia emphasized two fascinating things: "As long as there are people driving, the driving school will always exist, and the Traffic Management Bureau will always exist..."

The road to the future

So, since the future is coming, imagine what kind of changes will be made to human society if cars with driverless functions become the norm in traffic. Basically, this technology brings the goodwill of the world to the AI ​​expert Sebastian Tron who concise himself into the TED speech: “Have you noticed that driving accidents are the first killer of young people's death; are you Notice that all these accidents are caused almost entirely by human error rather than by machine failures. Can we make machines protect humans? We can increase the capacity of highways by 2 to 3 times - by optimizing the position of vehicles and letting them Drive close to narrow lanes to eliminate highway congestion. People spend an average of 52 minutes a day on daily traffic. You can regain this time. In the United States, wasted time is as much as 4 billion hours and wasted. Gasoline is up to 2.4 billion gallons."

In addition, driverless technology is bound to promote the prosperity of the shared economy. In the eyes of many people, having a car that only uses one or two hours a day is a very absurd thing. If you only buy a car for transportation, it can easily get you into trouble, auto insurance, fuel money, and parking. Difficult to ... and basically no investment value - In fact, many times people do not want cars, but just convenient and quick travel. However, under the logic of industrial society, they can only harden people's needs to what industrial society can do. On the product, for example, buy a car. In the era of experience economy and sharing economy, when driverless cars are truly popular, common mobility vehicles, as a durable and expensive consumer product, may bid farewell to the list of consumer goods and become a public rental product, which is bound to reduce the number of people in cities. The number of cars (think of the highways and blue sky during the Royal Park APEC). The data already predicts that the launch of each Google unmanned car will reduce the level of private car demand to one-tenth to one-tenth.

Of course, it is also possible to imagine the spread - a single point of innovation such as automation can allow people to rethink the urban space. For example, some foreign scholars have pointed out that automated automobiles will accelerate urban expansion. After all, cars that are the “third space” are no longer a waste of time. They can go back to work on the way to work, go back to sleep, or sleep in sports, and live in the outskirts. It is not unacceptable. In this year's report, ReidEwing, a director of the University of Utah Metropolitan Research Center, built the "freeway" without pilots during the post-war boom period, which promoted the first suburbanization. “Before the interstate highway, people were traveling at 30 mph, and the pace of urban expansion was certainly not as good as it is now.” According to consulting firm Frost & Sullivan, the city’s population will reach 4.6 billion by 2025 , accounting for 60% of the world's population, which will lead to the emergence of mega-cities (in the future the United Nations may allow mega-cities to become UN members). Due to the impact of urbanization, automakers will realize that they are no longer just manufacturing cars. The more important business market is to provide customers with personal transportation solutions.

Perhaps this prediction is far away. At least in 2014, what most people are concerned about is actually a security issue. Although mankind is a bad driver, but on the fast-flowing high-speed road, placing itself in a machine, letting go of the steering wheel and putting life into the sensor completely, there is no doubt that people need to overcome fear instinct. After all, it is the long evolutionary course of mankind. Experience always makes you more inclined to believe in yourself...

Oh, apart from the technical, regulatory and infrastructure issues, perhaps the driverless driver will also face some real problems with local characteristics. Yu Kai said on Weibo: “Touching porcelain, Chinese style crossings, and manhole cover, these challenges will Let China's unmanned vehicle technology lead the world."

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