Combining with the latest industry development plan for hot industry development, Professor Jiang Dahe of the School of Environmental Science and Engineering of Tongji University told the reporter of the “Economic Information Daily†that the country will strongly support R&D and engineering of renewable energy, but in the short term it is still unspoken. Form a breakthrough point for industrial development. In the long run, the use of nuclear energy will exceed the total amount of renewable energy, biomass energy will have greater development, and the development of wind energy and solar energy will be limited. Jiang Dahe is optimistic about the development of electric vehicles, but he believes that the prospect of fuel cells in China remains to be seen. The "Economic Information Daily" reporter recently also interviewed several experts and analysts in the field of new energy. They analyzed and looked forward to the development of some new energy industries.
Wind power and photovoltaics advance in dispute
Wind power and photovoltaic have been controversial in the development of new energy resources in recent years. In early October, wind power equipment and polysilicon raw materials were all accused of overcapacity. At the end of the year, the development of new industries in the media has also witnessed the emergence of wind power and photovoltaic.
Chief Investment Officer of the China Investment Advisor, Jiang Qian, analyzed with the reporter of the “Economic Information Daily†that under the current international environment, whether it is a traditional new energy big country or a relatively backward country, it is even a traditional big oil producing country. Both demonstrate the determination to find alternative energy sources.
Jiang Qian believes that solar power is the first choice for future energy. “The decline in on-grid PV prices is only a matter of time. With the technological bottlenecks being broken, the cost of manufacturing will drop, and the on-grid tariffs of PV will gradually approach the price of wind power and even thermal power.â€
Jiang Qian analyzed that in the next few years, the country will still be inclined to invest in wind power and photovoltaics. “The state will invest more investment, attention and policies in the high-tech R&D technology field and focus on investing funds to break the technical bottleneck, because currently the major obstacles to the development of wind power and photovoltaics are in the process of grid-connected technologies and components.†Jiang Qian Say.
New opportunities for biofuels
Different from the high-profile performance of wind power and photovoltaics in recent years, biofuels have been treated in a low-key manner as they endanger food security. With the maturity of non-food ethanol technology development, it is expected to usher in new development opportunities after the Copenhagen conference.
The reporter learned that in 2008, the global production of biofuels was 57.76 million tons, which replaced 2% of the oil, of which fuel ethanol production was 50.4 million tons. Taking foreign countries as an example, the output of fuel ethanol in the United States this year will reach 33 million tons, compared with 27 million tons last year. It is calculated on the basis of the US's national oil consumption of 900 million tons, and the replacement oil rate is 6%.
Professor Li Shizhong, deputy director of the Institute of New Energy Technology, Tsinghua University, took out a 2009 US Department of Energy's financial budget statement to the Economic Information Daily reporter. The United States made a budget of 217 million dollars for biomass energy in 2009 and The R&D of the biorefining system was an additional investment of 78.65 million U.S. dollars. This shows that the U.S. has paid more attention to biomass energy and has increased its investment.
Li Shizhong believes that the level of industry development is closely related to technology. At this stage, the first generation of fuel ethanol, such as corn, is used as a raw material to affect food security. The second-generation cellulose fuel ethanol technology is not yet mature. It is called 1.5. The generation of sweet sorghum culms for fuel ethanol is being put into industrial trials.
Li Shizhong introduced several advantages of sweet sorghum stalk processing of fuel ethanol: sorghum stalks cannot be eaten and not compete with people for grain; sorghum has a large planting area of ​​about 200 million mu and is widely distributed; sweet sorghum can receive 2 to 3 a year Season, sugar cane only 1 season; low cost "recovery stalk stalk price is 200 yuan / ton, the cost of processing 1 ton of fuel ethanol does not exceed 3,600 yuan, while the processing cost of 1 ton of first-generation fuel ethanol is not less than 5,000 yuan. "Li Shizhong said.
Electric cars do not need to be promoted
Wang Shulin, head of the Automotive Experts Group of the National Development and Reform Commission, recently said in an interview with the media that the new energy vehicle development plan has been submitted to the State Council and is expected to be officially promulgated in March next year. New energy vehicles were even the most concerned topic of the clean energy roundtable between the two countries during Obama’s visit to China.
The characteristics of electric vehicles are the effects of carbon dioxide emission reduction. According to the calculation of the power generation company, the CO2 emission factor of the power plant is 0.38 kg for 1 kWh and 2.32 kg for 1 liter of gasoline. Calculated on a 30,000-kilometer-a-year basis, an electric car traveling 150 km requires 21.2 kWh of electricity, so its annual CO2 emissions are 1600 kg. Gasoline cars, which burn 1 liter of oil, can run roughly 15.8 kilometers, and their annual CO2 emissions will reach 4400 kilograms.
According to Zhou Heliang, executive member of the Asia-Pacific Electric Vehicle Association, China's new energy vehicles have long been listed in the Eighth Five-Year Plan, but they have not been developed during the 15th Five-Year Plan Period. Since the 11th Five-Year Plan, energy conservation, emission reduction and energy security have been under great circumstances. New energy vehicles began to be substantially developed, and vehicle optimization and key components achieved initial results. However, there are still many obstacles ahead.
Battery technology is a key bottleneck for the development of new energy vehicles. "Fuel cells are the future direction of development, but temporarily do not consider, because the price is too expensive, is in the R & D stage; the industry has already formed a lead-acid battery is the current mainstream; lithium-ion battery It is the development trend in the recent three to five years. It is expected to form industrialization in the next five-year plan and embark on the road to mature technology.†Zhou Heliang analyzed in an interview with the “Economic Information Daily†reporter. “The best battery mileage is now available. It is 100-150 kilometers, and the improvement of social services such as charging stations is very important. The practice of charging stations 10 kilometers away in some parts of the country is worth learning from.â€
Zhou Heliang believes that at this stage, the market alone will not win more space for new energy vehicles. The government must introduce policies to increase the output of vehicle manufacturers. “The National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Ministry of Science and Technology should give the vehicle manufacturers an electric vehicle production ratio. At this stage, the proportion of 1% electric vehicles production is appropriate, and this proportion is raised every year, and it is expected to reach 10% by 2020. In addition, the proportion of electric vehicles is increased on the annual government bus procurement to ease the sales of automobile manufacturers. pressure."