Car prices accelerate the layout of new energy automotive industry chain

At present, the auto market only has new energy vehicles, SUV vehicles, lithium battery industry chain, after the auto market and other sectors showing highlights. The tone structure has become the main tone of the industry and the focus of the policy. The crowded car companies have accelerated the layout of new energy vehicles and related industrial chains.

Focus on structure

The previous executive meeting of the State Council decided that from October 1, 2015 to December 31, 2016, a preferential policy for the purchase of a vehicle purchase tax of half a 1.6-liter or less passenger vehicle should be imposed. This policy made the downturn in the auto market a buoy. The market began to speculate whether the domestic auto market could meet the Jedi counterattack as it did in 2009.

In January 2009, in response to the impact of the global financial crisis in 2008, the country introduced a preferential tax on vehicle purchase tax. From January 20 to December 31, 2009, a vehicle purchase tax policy of 5% reduction will be imposed on passenger cars with a displacement of 1.6 liters and below. Benefited from the preferential purchase tax policy at that time, in 2009 China's auto sales reached 13.6448 million units, an increase of 46.15% year-on-year, becoming the world's largest automobile production and sales country, and ushered in a golden period of development.

However, CSC Securities pointed out that the introduction of this policy is based on the government's need for supporting the macro economy, among which the expectation is to increase subsidies for traditional fuel-saving vehicles, indicating that automobile consumption is still the direction of policy encouragement and support. However, compared with the stimulating policy of halving purchase tax in 2009, it is expected that this policy will have a limited driving effect on the sales volume and profitability of auto makers. In terms of sales volume, a halving purchase tax policy is conducive to reducing vehicle prices and stabilizing demand. However, this year's low sales growth is related to the growth center's downward movement and higher income expectations. It is difficult for the macro economy to achieve the V-shape reversal as stimulated in 2009. The short-term resident sector is expected to have a small chance of improvement, and under the background of the declining growth hub, there is little chance for significant growth in demand growth. In terms of profitability, the overall profitability of 1.6L and below models is low. Under the current competitive situation and capacity matching (which has shifted from 2009 to a more relaxed mode), it is expected that this subsidy will benefit more from consumers and manufacturers. The benefit is limited.

CSC Securities believes that under the background that the domestic economy has entered a new normal, the domestic auto market will achieve slight increase, no increase, or even negative growth this year. It is a high-probability event and adjustment of the structure will become the main tone of the domestic auto market for a long time to come. It will become the focus of the policy.

In fact, the State Council Executive Meeting on September 29 also decided to improve the support policies for new energy vehicles, support research and development of power batteries, fuel cell vehicles, etc., launch pilot demonstration sites for intelligent networked vehicles, and speed up the phase-out of operation of yellow standard vehicles to carry out special rectification projects. action. The meeting held that promoting the development of new energy and small-displacement vehicles and phasing out vehicles that exceed emissions standards will help ease the pressure on energy and the environment, promote the optimization of the automobile industry structure, upgrade consumption and cultivate new economic growth points.

Increased performance differentiation

New energy vehicles, SUVs, lithium battery industry chain, and post-car market have become one of the few bright spots in the entire automobile market, and the performance differentiation of listed companies related to automobiles and auto parts has further intensified.

Thanks to the explosive growth of new energy vehicles and continued hot sales of SUV models, the performance of related listed companies has continued to rise against the trend. BYD estimates that the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters was 1.9 billion yuan to 2.08 billion yuan, an increase of 388.54% to 434.83% year-on-year. The company said that the "Qin," a plug-in hybrid vehicle that is expected to be popular in the market in the third quarter, will continue to sell well. With the gradual release of production capacity and the continuous increase in promotion, the newly-listed plug-in hybrid SUV model will be " The sales volume of Tang will also increase steadily. At the same time, orders for public transportation and special vehicles will also be accelerated. The Group's new energy vehicle business will continue to maintain its good momentum of rapid growth.

Driven by the rapid expansion of new energy vehicles, the performance of listed companies related to the lithium battery industry chain also ushered in explosive growth. Taking Duo Fu Duo as an example, the company expects the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the first three quarters will be 18 million to 22 million yuan, a significant year-on-year loss. The company stated that due to the tight market of power lithium batteries, the company's production scale has been continuously expanded, its business operations have gradually improved, and its transformation and upgrading have achieved remarkable results.

Layout new energy

New energy vehicles are seen as a “secondary rocket” that boosts the growth of performance. In the third quarter, many listed companies have accelerated the layout of new energy vehicles and related industrial chains.

According to statistics from the China Automobile Association, from January to August, 118,020 new energy vehicles were produced and 108,654 were sold, which were 2.6 times and 2.7 times year-on-year respectively. Among them, the production and sales of pure electric vehicles completed 74,727 and 68,316 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 2.9 times and 3.4 times year-on-year respectively; the production and sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles completed 43,293 vehicles and 40,338 vehicles, respectively, an increase of 2.1 times and 2 times.

In the context of new energy vehicles spurring forward, a number of passenger vehicle listed companies have accelerated their deployment in the new energy automotive market. Great Wall Motor has launched a huge new energy vehicle plan. The company plans to increase the fundraising by 12 billion yuan, of which 9.5 billion yuan will be used for new energy vehicle projects (including power systems, motor systems, and transmission projects). Jianghuai Automobile also announced a fixed increase plan of RMB 4.5 billion on July 22, among which, the planned investment for new energy passenger vehicles and core parts and components is RMB 2.373 billion. The project construction period is 24 months. After the project is completed, it will A single-class 100,000-unit/year new energy passenger vehicle, 150,000 sets/year power battery assembly, and 150,000 sets/year of electronically controlled motor production capacity will be formed.

The outbreak of new energy vehicles has also spurred the entire new energy automotive industry chain, especially the most critical lithium battery segment. The market expects that the demand for power lithium batteries in 2015 will exceed 13 million kwh, an increase of over 100%. According to incomplete statistics from the China Securities Journal, at least 18 listed companies have invested heavily in lithium battery projects this year, and the amount of investment exceeds 50 billion yuan. In the third quarter, a number of listed companies further sublimated the lithium battery industry chain, further pushing the lithium battery industry chain investment this year to a climax. Dadongfang announced on August 31st that the total amount of non-public offering funds raised will not exceed RMB 2 billion. The raised funds will be used for the “annual production of 750 million Ah lithium-ion battery energy storage battery construction project” after deducting the issuance cost. The main products are Lithium ion automotive energy storage battery, all external sales. Listed companies such as Del Household, Chengfei Integration, and Lucky Films have also invested in the lithium battery industry chain in the third quarter.