Behind the high growth of the machinery industry, it is difficult to hide the downward trend

In view of the performance of the machinery industry since the beginning of the year, the mechanical sector index has so far fallen by 18%. In the same period, all A-share indices fell by more than 12%, and the machinery sector underperformed all A-shares by 6 percentage points. From a relative trend, sub-sectors such as shipbuilding, construction machinery, textile and garment machinery, instrumentation, metal products, and machine tool equipment outperformed the machinery industry index; and several sub-sectors such as railway transportation equipment, boiler equipment, and lifting and transportation equipment were absolute The relative decline is relatively large.

Data show that in the first half of 2011, the industry achieved operating revenue of 367.175 billion yuan, an increase of 38.1%; net profit of 34.283 billion yuan, an increase of 56.22%. In the first half of the year, the production and sales of the machinery industry continued to show steady and rapid growth. However, the high growth of the machinery industry in the first half of 2011 could hardly conceal the deceleration of growth. Hongyuan Securities analyst Pang Linlin judged that due to the steady fall in domestic investment, the overseas economy is still unclear, and the downstream demand of the machinery industry is still hard to boost. At the same time, the prices of steel and other raw materials remain high and fluctuated. The mechanical industry's annual growth rate in 2011 is 20 About %, the downward trend of industry profitability is hard to stop.

In the first half of this year, the pre-collection revenue of the entire machinery industry accounted for 16.21%, a 5.73% drop from the same period of last year, indicating that the demand for industry orders gradually returned from a high growth rate; meanwhile, the industry capital expenditure was 37.847 billion yuan, an increase of 64.08% year-on-year. On the one hand, it is because of IPO investment in listed companies; on the other hand, it has a lot to do with manufacturing companies' significant expansion of production capacity last year. In the future, industry competition will intensify.

Pang Linlin said that combined with the industry's operating conditions and current valuation levels, the overall investment opportunities of the machinery industry in the second half of 2011 were not outstanding, and the “neutral” investment rating was maintained. China Everbright Securities analyst Lu Zhou suggested that in the uncertain future of the overseas economy and the domestic economy, in the second half of the machinery industry's lack of overall opportunities, it is still possible to focus on the aircraft manufacturing industry supported by the National Strategic Emerging Industry Twelfth Five-Year Plan. , as well as the military industry with asset injection expectations.

In the field of aircraft manufacturing, Xifei International, Aerospace Power, Hafei Shares, AVIC Seiki and Guihang Co., Ltd. will be selected. The military industry continues to be optimistic about China Satellite and China Heavy Industry. From the perspective of the China Satellite itself, the influx of assets into the company’s largest shareholder in the five academies is imminent. 80% of the assets in the 5th Academy have not entered listed companies, especially in large satellites and satellite applications. The profitability is far beyond that of small satellites. It is expected to start asset injection in the second half of the year. With continued infusion of key military and non-ship assets in the following year, China Heavy Industry will maintain its leading position in the long-term A-share equipment manufacturing and listed companies. By the end of this year, if the issuance is completed smoothly, it is not difficult for the company's market capitalization to reach the goal of 200 billion yuan.